{"product_id":"105257","title":"Shrinking World ","description":"\u003ccenter\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:center\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/tmgdisk01.cafe24.com\/images\/vs\/4172\/sv\/WQtVZOlkeV2FuKjVgsIneS.png?v=1764959018\" style=\"max-width:100%;max-height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\u003ccenter\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:95%\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:center;font-size:30px;font-weight:bolder;line-height:1.6em\"\u003e Shrinking World \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px;border-bottom-style:dotted;border-color:;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable align=\"center\" width=\"100%\"\u003e\u003ctbody style=\"border:0px\"\u003e\n\n\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"center\" style=\"line-height:1.2em;text-align:center;font-size:18px;color:black;font-weight:bold;padding-bottom:20px;\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\n\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"text-align:center\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/image.yes24.com\/goods\/124435808\/XL\" style=\"max-width:100%;height:auto\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/tbody\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:95%;{split_style6}padding-top:20px;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e Description \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;word-break:break-all;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6em;\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eBook Introduction\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003e A word from MD\u003c\/dt\u003e\n\u003cdd\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e A world with a declining population and no growth\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e South Korea's low birth rate and population decline problems are serious.\u003cbr\u003e The situation is no different in other countries.\u003cbr\u003e Neither the United States nor China have any specific measures in place to address population decline.\u003cbr\u003e Humanity, accustomed to continuous growth, must prepare for a shrinking society.\u003cbr\u003e A book that shows us an unfamiliar future of housing supply, education, and economic growth in a shrinking world.\u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e  \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cspan\u003eJanuary 23, 2024.\u003c\/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003eSocial and Political PD Son Min-gyu\u003c\/span\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/dd\u003e\n\u003c\/dl\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e \u003cb\u003eThe era of great growth is finally coming to an end.\u003cbr\u003e A shrinking population and a shrinking economy are making the world smaller and smaller.\u003cbr\u003e The competition to grab a piece of the shrinking pie is also fierce.\u003cbr\u003e So how will the current declining population affect our future lives?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Growth, whether population or economy, is over.\u003cbr\u003e The \"Age of the Verge of Extinction\", the age of growth, has ended and the \"Age of Contraction\" has arrived!\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A realistic on-site report detailing the shrinking populations of countries around the world. \u003cbr\u003eThis book is written by an urban planning expert who has been researching housing supply, economic development, and urban revitalization in the face of population decline for 30 years. The author predicts what the world and economy will look like in 2050 if the current population trend continues, along with the shrinking status of many countries around the world due to population decline.\u003cbr\u003e We also examine the causes and impacts of population decline and a shrinking world.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The author argues that once a country experiences a sharp decline in its birth rate, it is difficult for it to recover, and therefore, countries whose populations are currently declining will continue to decline in the future.\u003cbr\u003e In particular, Korea and Japan are said to be at the forefront of shrinking nations.\u003cbr\u003e On the other hand, the United States is expected to maintain its position as an economic powerhouse in 2050, despite its declining population, as the proportion of the population aged 15-30 is much larger than in other countries. \u003cbr\u003eUltimately, population decline is diagnosed as a problem that must be managed, not a problem that must be solved.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In particular, the author uses various data to show the current state of population decline and the resulting spatial inequality and economic decline in various parts of the world, including the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea; Western Europe, including Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and France; Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Poland; India, Iran, and Africa.\u003cbr\u003e Meanwhile, we also examine the gap between winners and losers that arises in the competition to take over a shrinking pie.\u003cbr\u003e In short, they say that population decline creates another kind of ‘inequality.’\u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e You can preview some of the book's contents.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cspan\u003ePreview\u003c\/span\u003e\n\n\u003c\/li\u003e\u003c\/ul\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eindex\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e \u003cb\u003eIntroduction: Living on a Shrinking Earth\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A time when population growth was believed to be a disaster \u003cbr\u003eShrinking population, shrinking cities, shrinking pie\u003cbr\u003e The world in 2050 will be worse than it is today.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 1: From Ancient Rome to 21st-Century South Korea: A History of Global Population Change\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The Roman Empire, which declined from 1.1 million to 30,000 in eight centuries, and the Yuan Dynasty, which increased from 400,000 to 1 million in one century.\u003cbr\u003e The industrialization of 19th-century Europe and the United States and the resulting population explosion\u003cbr\u003e The collapse of manufacturing in 20th-century America led to the decline of cities and populations.\u003cbr\u003e Western Europe's population peaks after World War II, and declines again.\u003cbr\u003e In the late 20th century, Eastern Europe experienced a population decline unprecedented in world history.\u003cbr\u003e Japan: Half of local governments will disappear by 2040; South Korea: Total population decline begins in 2020; China: Half of the population will disappear by 2100.\u003cbr\u003e Countries whose populations are declining now will continue to decline in the future.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 2: The World Population Declines by 2070\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Three stages of population change until the mid-20th century \u003cbr\u003eStage 4: Transition to a period of population decline. Once the birth rate falls, it is difficult to rise again.\u003cbr\u003e 1960s-70s: Population explosion, lower the birth rate!\u003cbr\u003e China's one-child policy did not lead to a decline in the birth rate.\u003cbr\u003e Have France and Singapore's birth-encouraging policies really worked?\u003cbr\u003e A declining birth rate does not necessarily mean an immediate population decline.\u003cbr\u003e Japan in the late 20th century was a \"country of young people.\"\u003cbr\u003e The inflection point where the world population begins to decline is 2070.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 3: Cities and the Economy Drive Populations\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e International Migration: 3 Factors That Make You Want to Leave Your Country of Origin\u003cbr\u003e Domestic migration, even within a country, takes many forms.\u003cbr\u003e Washington's population grew by 20% over 20 years, Beijing's population tripled over 30 years.\u003cbr\u003e Mumbai's population, on the other hand, grew by only 1% over the past decade.\u003cbr\u003e Eastern European population emigrating abroad: now only two women for every three men \u003cbr\u003eJapanese and Russian populations moving from the periphery to the center\u003cbr\u003e Japan, where population inflow occurred in only 7 out of 46 places\u003cbr\u003e Russia's overall population has declined, but Moscow's population has increased by 40%.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 4: How Population Decline Affects Housing Demand\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e What are the direct consequences of population decline?\u003cbr\u003e Why Are Wastelands Growing in America's Cities?\u003cbr\u003e In Germany, housing demand is falling, but supply is increasing.\u003cbr\u003e It's not population, but the number of households that determines housing demand.\u003cbr\u003e In Eastern Europe, the population is decreasing, the number of households is decreasing, and the demand for housing is decreasing.\u003cbr\u003e In Bulgaria, 27% of all housing units are vacant.\u003cbr\u003e By 2050, the number of households in Poland will decrease by 2 million, and in Latvia by 200,000.\u003cbr\u003e In Japan, one in seven homes will be vacant in 2018, and one in three homes will be vacant in 2040.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 5: How Does a Declining Population Affect Our Economic Lives?\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Economic problems that arise when the age distribution shifts upward \u003cbr\u003eA declining working population, resulting in a decline in consumption, and resulting economic decline.\u003cbr\u003e When population declines, all investments and all markets shrink.\u003cbr\u003e The stigma of being a place with a declining population\u003cbr\u003e Population decline exacerbates inequality both between and within cities.\u003cbr\u003e Tax revenues are declining faster than the population.\u003cbr\u003e Why European Cities Are Better Off Than American Cities\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 6: The Shrinking Nation, America!\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e By 2034, the U.S. population begins to decline.\u003cbr\u003e America's shrinking workforce\u003cbr\u003e Shrinking American Cities\u003cbr\u003e Population fluctuates due to climate and prices\u003cbr\u003e California recorded the largest net population outflow\u003cbr\u003e Growth bias: shrinking cities receive a smaller share.\u003cbr\u003e Efforts to cope with a shrinking future\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 7: Three Major Challenges Facing a Shrinking World\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The impact of climate change on countries around the world\u003cbr\u003e Rising temperatures have unequal impacts.\u003cbr\u003e Economic Winners and Losers from Climate Change \u003cbr\u003eCan Technological Change Boost Productivity and Economic Growth?\u003cbr\u003e Political instability and geopolitical risks threatening the world\u003cbr\u003e Can the US, the EU, and China become future superpowers?\u003cbr\u003e Countries trying to fill the void left by the great powers\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 8: Growth is over, whether in population or economy!\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Is population decline a sign of failure?\u003cbr\u003e Population decline is not something to be solved, but rather something to be managed.\u003cbr\u003e By 2050, global economic growth will turn negative.\u003cbr\u003e Growth is over; we need to build a regionally centered economy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 9: For a Sustainable City\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The various situations that places with declining populations will face\u003cbr\u003e Building a Strong Local Economy\u003cbr\u003e Efforts to build a local community ecosystem\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChapter 10: 2050: Thriving in a Shrinking World\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e 2050, the world to come\u003cbr\u003e America's economic dominance will persist into 2050.\u003cbr\u003e Obstacles to the transformation of shrinking cities \u003cbr\u003eThe Path to Success in a Shrinking World\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eConclusion: The Age of Growth Ends, and the Age of Contraction Begins\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e References\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eDetailed image\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/image.yes24.com\/momo\/TopCate4397\/MidCate008\/439679835.jpg\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Detailed Image 1\"\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eInto the book\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e Living on a shrinking Earth requires a different way of thinking than what we have been accustomed to.\u003cbr\u003e Downsizing isn't just about changing numbers.\u003cbr\u003e In fact, the opposite is true.\u003cbr\u003e While the dynamics of shrinkage vary greatly from city to city and country to country, shrinkage causes significant social, economic, physical, and behavioral harm.\u003cbr\u003e Such damage affects the vitality and resilience of countries and cities.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.18\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e From 2002 to 2019, 31 of South Korea's 85 cities experienced population declines, with half of them losing more than 10%.\u003cbr\u003e Korea's population is increasingly concentrated around Seoul. \u003cbr\u003eIn other words, Seoul itself is no longer growing, but the surrounding cities are growing at a rapid pace.\u003cbr\u003e The population of the satellite city of Incheon has increased by one million since 1992, and the populations of smaller cities such as Ansan and Uijeongbu have also doubled.\u003cbr\u003e Meanwhile, in Busan, Korea's second largest city, the population decreased by 400,000 during the same period.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.56\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e After World War II, as modernization and urbanization spread around the world, birth rates plummeted.\u003cbr\u003e In 1960, the total fertility rate worldwide was 4.98.\u003cbr\u003e After that, it dropped to 3.71 in 1980 and plummeted to 2.41 in 2018.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.72\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Singapore has designated a “National Night.”\u003cbr\u003e National Night is a night to encourage “adult men and women who are financially well-off, stable, committed, and in long-term relationships” to enter into relationships for the purpose of conception.\u003cbr\u003e However, Singapore has become one of the countries with the lowest total fertility rate in the world. \u003cbr\u003eThe only countries with lower birth rates than Singapore are Taiwan and South Korea.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.82\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e France's total fertility rate continues to fall below replacement level, and the current budget allocated to France's family allowance system is equivalent to 4% of France's GDP, resulting in a massive financial loss.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.83\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Population growth is not only a matter of economic growth, but also a deeply political issue, closely tied to a country's perception of its power and importance.\u003cbr\u003e But whatever scenario unfolds, population growth rates in many countries are expected to slow or even turn negative over the coming decades.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.84\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In 1950, Japan was a “country of young people.”\u003cbr\u003e More than a third of the total population was under 15 years old, and only 5% were over 65 years old.\u003cbr\u003e From 1950 to 1990, Japan's population grew by 47%, while its working-age population increased by 71%. \u003cbr\u003eBut by 2019, the ratio had reversed.\u003cbr\u003e The population under 15 years old was only 12% of the total population, but the population over 65 years old was 28%.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.88\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The global inflection point, where the world's total population begins to decline, is expected to arrive around 2070.\u003cbr\u003e By 2050, 65 countries, or a third of all countries, are projected to have negative population growth, and another fifth will have annual population growth rates below 0.5%.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.91\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e As the population declines, the number of empty houses and abandoned land increases, eventually reaching a point where the real estate market virtually ceases to function.\u003cbr\u003e Homeowners move out or die, fewer and fewer homes become available for purchase, and eventually more and more homes are left vacant.\u003cbr\u003e The few people who want to buy a home in these neighborhoods find it difficult to get a mortgage or insurance on their home.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e--- p.147\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In Japan, the preference for new homes is almost absolute.\u003cbr\u003e If you can't afford a new home, don't buy one at all.\u003cbr\u003e As a result, in recent years, “the number of households has increased by an average of 300,000 households per year, but the number of houses built has increased by an average of 900,000 per year.”\u003cbr\u003e As a result, a total of 8.2 million houses were confirmed to be vacant in 2018, and by 2040, the number of households in Japan will decrease by 3.4 million compared to now, and by 2040, nearly 〈1 in 3 houses〉 could be vacant.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.170\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In China, the population aged 75 and over is expected to increase from 50 million to 205 million in just 35 years.\u003cbr\u003e Meanwhile, the population aged 20-29, a crucial age group for maintaining national power, such as stimulating the housing market and supporting a large military, as well as the labor force, is expected to decline by more than 40%, from 232 million to 135 million. \u003cbr\u003eAdditionally, the median age is expected to rise from 37 to 49 years old.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.185\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Supporting an aging population requires significantly more public funds than supporting the same number of children.\u003cbr\u003e Official figures estimate that it costs more than twice as much to support one elderly person as it does to support one child.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.187\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Population decline highlights the increasingly serious economic and spatial inequalities.\u003cbr\u003e While population decline leads to lower economic growth, the burden is not shared equally by everyone.\u003cbr\u003e As regions emerge that are classified as “winners” and “losers” in terms of population, the gap between the two will widen.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.195\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e It is certain that the pie will shrink in the future. \u003cbr\u003eAs the pie grows, resources can be shared more widely without anyone having to give up what they already have, and people become more open to social change.\u003cbr\u003e Conversely, when the pie shrinks, people tend to hold on to not only economic resources but also the levers of power and opportunity.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.196\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Under British law, local governments are required to maintain a certain level of social welfare spending, most of which goes to care for the elderly.\u003cbr\u003e By 2018, Barnsley, a small town in Yorkshire, was spending 62% of its budget on welfare.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.206\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Daugavpils, Latvia's second-largest city, is an industrial city whose population has declined by 35% since 1990.\u003cbr\u003e Since 2010, only 90 new houses or apartments have been built in Daugavpils.\u003cbr\u003e In other words, only 〈8 new houses〉 were built in one year. \u003cbr\u003eIn Daugavpils you can buy an apartment practically for free.\u003cbr\u003e In late 2021, a one-room apartment on the fifth floor of a building built during the Soviet era was put up for sale for 3,000 euros (about 4.28 million won).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.207\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The skewness of growth will become more pronounced, and the growth available for riding the growth bandwagon will also decrease, so the competition to seize the “crumbs of growth” will become more intense.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.242\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e As the U.S. population ages and the dependency ratio increases, spending on health care for people aged 65 and older, who accounted for about a third of all health care spending in 2014, is projected to increase from 6% of GDP to 9% by 2030.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.243\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Population size has long influenced a country's standing on the world stage.\u003cbr\u003e In the 1930s, this attitude gave rise to fears of population decline in countries like France and Britain. \u003cbr\u003eThis is because there were concerns that population decline could put them at a disadvantage not only in the future economy but also in military competition.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.323\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Because population growth is a major driver of economic growth, a slowdown in population growth could also lead to a slowdown in economic growth.\u003cbr\u003e This slowdown will be particularly pronounced in regions that account for the majority of global GDP, including the United States, European Union member states, China, and Japan.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.334\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In the United States today, the proportion of the population aged 15-30 is much larger than in China or Germany.\u003cbr\u003e Therefore, over the next 10 to 20 years, the size of the working population in the United States will decrease less and the dependency ratio will rise more gradually than in other developed countries.\u003cbr\u003e Because of this age distribution, the United States will have a clear “economic advantage” during this period.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- p.413\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The world in 2050 is expected to be more unequal and polarized than it is today. \u003cbr\u003eThe coming decades are not likely to be easy.\u003cbr\u003e As global population growth slows, the combined effects of demographic shifts, slowing economic growth, political instability, and climate change will affect most people worldwide.\u003cbr\u003e It won't solve all the problems we face.\u003cbr\u003e But unlike the frog in the boiling water, we will find a way out of the pot before it is too late.\u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e --- p.429\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003ePublisher's Review\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e \u003cb\u003eOn the Verge of Extinction, a world where everything is shrinking\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Population decline has negative social, economic and environmental consequences.\u003cbr\u003e Moreover, population decline cannot be separated from economic decline and poverty.\u003cbr\u003e The United States, the European Union, and China, currently economic powerhouses, are also expected to experience negative population growth by 2050. \u003cbr\u003eJudging by various evidences, economic growth is also likely to continue to slow, ultimately leading to the global economy not growing at all or experiencing negative growth.\u003cbr\u003e As economic growth slows, the overall pie will shrink, as will cities, countries, and the world.\u003cbr\u003e Humanity has now entered the “age of reduction,” a stage on the verge of extinction.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eHow does a declining population affect our lives?\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In particular, the author focuses on how a shrinking population affects our social and economic lives. \u003cbr\u003eWe examine the ripple effects on our economic lives as the foundations of capitalism are shaken by the decline in housing demand caused by population decline and the resulting collapse of the housing market, the decline in consumption and productivity due to the decline in the working-age population and the increase in the aging population, the resulting deflation leading to a decrease in capital investment, the decline in the global economy and global trade, tax revenues declining faster than the population, and the lack of financial resources to support the aging population.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e2070: Global population begins to decline \/ 2050: Global economic growth turns negative\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eThe Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, one of the world's most authoritative population forecasters, projects that by 2050, 65 countries, or a third of all countries, will have negative population growth, another fifth will have annual population growth rates below 0.5%, and that the global inflection point, where the total world population begins to decline, will arrive around 2070.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Moreover, global economic growth is projected to turn negative by 2050. Looking at the long-term global economic growth trend, measured by annual GDP growth rate, it has been on a steady decline since the 1960s.\u003cbr\u003e Global economic growth is likely to decline further and eventually enter a decline in the coming decades.\u003cbr\u003e As economic decline accelerates, global trade, which has been the foundation of global prosperity for decades, will also weaken.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe growing number of empty homes around the world stemming from population decline suggests an era of housing glut is upon us.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e As the population declines, the number of vacant homes and abandoned land increases, eventually reaching a point where the real estate market virtually ceases to function. \u003cbr\u003eCountries like Japan, where the number of vacant homes is expected to increase from 8 million today to 15-20 million by 2040; China, where a 2017 survey found that 65 million homes, or about 20% of the housing stock, were vacant; the United States, where even middle-class cities have seen a significant increase in vacant homes in recent decades, leading to a phenomenon called “urban wasteland”; Detroit, which has suffered a severe population decline due to the collapse of its manufacturing industry and demolished 20,000 vacant homes between 2014 and 2020; Latvia, where new residential building permits have fallen to just over 0.2% of all housing units over the past 12 years due to increasing vacancy; and Bulgaria, where 1,075,000 vacant homes, or 27% of all housing units, will be vacant in 2020, are all in serious trouble.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePopulation decline exacerbates spatial inequality.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Population decline exacerbates existing patterns of inequality and deepens “economic and spatial inequality.” \u003cbr\u003eWhile it is clear that population decline leads to lower economic growth, the burden is not shared equally.\u003cbr\u003e As population declines and resources become scarce, the pie shrinks, and the \"growth bias\" becomes even more pronounced as those with the greatest advantage hoard more and more of the available resources for themselves.\u003cbr\u003e Ultimately, the growth opportunities available for future growth will also decrease, and competition to seize the “crumbs of growth” will become more intense.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Additionally, the population of areas with concentrated poverty is declining at a much faster rate.\u003cbr\u003e In Cleveland, USA, the population of high-poverty areas decreased by 70% between 1970 and 2019, while the population of low-poverty areas decreased by only a third. \u003cbr\u003eWashington, D.C., and Seattle, in particular, saw population growth of more than 20% from 2000 to 2020. In Washington, D.C., the number of residents with a bachelor's degree or higher more than doubled, and the share of the adult population with a degree increased from 39% to 59%.\u003cbr\u003e In contrast, only 15% and 12% of adult residents in Detroit and Johnstown, respectively, which are experiencing population decline, have college degrees.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePopulation decline around the world, including the United States, China, Japan, Korea, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Iran, and Russia.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The author vividly describes, with data, the social and economic changes in countries around the world due to population decline.\u003cbr\u003e The countries covered in this book are:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eIn the 1950s, Japan was a “country of young people” where more than a third of the total population was under 15 years old and only 5% were over 65 years old. However, now 30% of the total population is over 65 years old. \/ China, where the population aged 20-29 has decreased by more than 40% in 35 years, increasing the median age from 37 to 49 years old, and the population will be half of the current population by 2100. \/ The United States, where the population will decrease by 2034 without immigration. \/ Korea, where the total population began to decrease in 2020 and is now at the forefront of shrinking countries along with Japan. \/ Russia, where the population decreased by 2 million over 30 years, but the population of Moscow increased by 40%. \/ Eastern Europe, where the population decreased by 20 million, an unprecedented decrease in world history since World War II. \/ Poland, where the number of households will decrease by 2 million by 2050. \/ Yorkshire, England, where 62% of the city budget was spent on welfare in 2018 due to the increase in the aging population. Barnsley, a small town; Eastern and Central Europe, which will see a 12% population decline between 2020 and 2050; Iran, where the total fertility rate fell from 5.07 in 1989 to 2.07 in 2000; Singapore, which has a National Night to encourage “adult men and women who are economically well-off and in stable, committed, long-term relationships” to have children, but recorded a total fertility rate of 1.1 in 2020; France, which spends 4% of its GDP on family allowances; and Sub-Saharan Africa, the only region on Earth with a growing population but no guarantee of economic growth.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eGlobal total fertility rate: 4.98 in 1960, 3.71 in 1980, 2.41 in 2018\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e After World War II, as modernization and urbanization spread around the world, birth rates plummeted.\u003cbr\u003e In 1960, the global total fertility rate was 4.98, dropping to 3.71 in 1980 and plummeting to 2.41 in 2018.\u003cbr\u003e Total fertility rate refers to the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime.\u003cbr\u003e The replacement fertility rate, which refers to the level required for a population to remain stable in the long term, is 2.1 children per woman.\u003cbr\u003e Sweden's total fertility rate, which had been around 4.0 in the late 19th century, fell to 3.6 in 1910, 3.2 in 1920, and below 2.0 in 1930, while Japan's total fertility rate remained below the replacement level for 45 years. \u003cbr\u003eIf a country's total fertility rate is higher than 2.1, the population increases; if it is lower than that, the population decreases.\u003cbr\u003e A decline in the total fertility rate is a very important process leading to population decline.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In 1960, only five countries, including two former Soviet Union countries, had total fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1.\u003cbr\u003e But in 2018, nearly half of the world's countries had total fertility rates below replacement level.\u003cbr\u003e Of the 64 countries that recorded total fertility rates below replacement level in 2008, 63 countries, with the exception of one, still had total fertility rates below replacement level in 2018.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eSouth Korea's total fertility rate of 0.7 is like the Black Death of the Middle Ages.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eRoss Douthat, a columnist for the New York Times, introduced Korea's total fertility rate, which has fallen to 0.7, in his column dated December 2, 2023, and pointed out that Korea's population could decline at a faster rate than that of 14th-century medieval Europe, when the population plummeted due to the Black Death, and that \"Korea is a prominent case study in the population decline problem faced by advanced countries.\"\u003cbr\u003e Additionally, the Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute warned that the total fertility rate will fall to the 0.6 range in the fourth quarter of 2023, the growth rate will fall below 0% around 2050, and the total population will fall below 40 million by 2070.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eThe Power of Population: Population is closely linked to economic growth.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Population growth is not only a matter of economic growth, but also a deeply political issue, closely linked to perceptions of a nation's power and importance. \u003cbr\u003ePopulation size has long influenced a country's standing on the world stage.\u003cbr\u003e In the 1930s, this attitude gave rise to fears of population decline in countries like France and Britain.\u003cbr\u003e This was because they were concerned that population decline could put them at a disadvantage in future economic and military competition.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Economists also say that the demographic dividend (the effect of a growing share of the working-age population reducing dependency ratios and boosting economic growth) has played a key role in the economic growth of countries like South Korea, Japan, and China over the past several decades.\u003cbr\u003e However, as the population ages and life expectancy increases, the proportion of the working-age population decreases, and the population dividend effect also disappears.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eThe emergence of shrinking cities in the 1980s, the 21st century as a shrinking world\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eBy the 1980s, as population decline became widespread in cities across Western Europe, two German scholars coined the term \"shrinking city\" to describe the phenomenon.\u003cbr\u003e A shrinking city is a city that loses a significant portion of its population in a short period of time. With the emergence of shrinking cities due to population decline, and the subsequent increase in shrinking cities, the country itself is shrinking, and the 21st century is increasingly becoming a “shrinking world.”\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Downsizing isn't just about changing numbers.\u003cbr\u003e While the dynamics of shrinkage vary greatly from city to city and country to country, shrinkage causes significant social, economic, physical, and behavioral harm.\u003cbr\u003e Such damage affects the vitality and resilience of countries and cities.\u003cbr\u003e In the coming decades, shrinking cities will increase and \"growth cities\" will decrease. \u003cbr\u003eWith shrinking cities now becoming the norm, it is expected that by 2100, most cities around the world will be shrinking cities.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eThe shrinking status of populations around the world\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eJapan, in the mid-to-late 20th century, was a \"country of youth.\"\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Japan is currently one of the world's oldest countries, with about 30% of its population aged 65 or older.\u003cbr\u003e But Japan in the 1950s was a country of young people.\u003cbr\u003e From 1950 to 1990, the total population increased by 47% and the working-age population increased by 71%.\u003cbr\u003e But by 2019, the situation had reversed, with those under 15 making up 12% of the total population and those over 65 making up 28%.\u003cbr\u003e The working-age population has also decreased by more than 10 million since 1990, while the elderly population has increased by more than 21 million.\u003cbr\u003e Today, one in seven Japanese workers is over 65 years old.\u003cbr\u003e Currently, the median age in Japan is 〈56 years old〉.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe Japanese people's strong preference for \"new homes,\" and the resulting vacant homes and housing market crisis.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In Japan, the preference for new homes is almost absolute.\u003cbr\u003e If you can't afford a new home, don't buy one at all.\u003cbr\u003e In the US, one new home is sold for every five old homes sold, and in the UK the ratio of old to new homes is 10:1, while in Japan the ratio is 1:2.\u003cbr\u003e In other words, when two new houses are traded, only one old house is traded.\u003cbr\u003e As a result, the number of new homes in Japan far exceeds the annual increase in the number of households.\u003cbr\u003e In recent years, the number of households has increased by an average of 300,000 per year, but the number of houses built has increased by an average of 900,000 per year. \u003cbr\u003eAs a result, in 2018, one in seven houses or apartments, or a total of 8.2 million, were found to be vacant, and according to official projections, by 2040, the number of households in Japan will decrease by 3.4 million, and by 2040, nearly one in three houses could be vacant.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eChina's population aged 20-29 is expected to decline from 232 million to 135 million.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In China, in just 35 years from 2015 to 2050, the population aged 75 and over will increase from 50 million to 205 million, the population aged 20-64 will decrease by 180 million, and the proportion of the working-age population aged 20-30 will decrease from 47% to 42%. \u003cbr\u003eIn 2015, China's dependency ratio (the ratio of the working-age population defined as the population aged 20-64 to the dependent population, which refers to the population aged 65 or older and under 20) was 50 (2.0 working-age population per 1 dependent population), but it is projected that by 2050, the number of dependent populations per 100 working-age population will increase to 82 (1.2 working-age population per 1 dependent population).\u003cbr\u003e Additionally, by 2050, China's population is expected to decrease by more than 10% compared to the current level, and the gender imbalance is expected to become increasingly serious as a result of the flawed one-child policy, emerging as a social problem.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eIn the US, healthcare spending for those aged 65 and older is projected to rise to 9% of GDP.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The U.S. population growth rate has been declining sharply since the mid-2010s.\u003cbr\u003e “Simply put, too few people are born in America, too many are dying, and not enough people are immigrating. \u003cbr\u003eAmerica is entering a demographic danger zone.” In 2021, there will be over 4.7 million 30-year-olds, but only 3.5 million infants under the age of one.\u003cbr\u003e By 2040, the number of college students is projected to decrease by at least 1 million, or 10%.\u003cbr\u003e On the other hand, the population aged 65 and over, which was 56 million in 2020, is expected to increase to 84 million in 2050, accounting for 23% of the total population.\u003cbr\u003e Five years from now, as the cohort entering the workforce begins to shrink, economic growth slows, and the dependency ratio increases due to an aging population, spending on health care for people aged 65 and older, which accounted for about a third of all health care spending in 2014, is projected to rise from 6% of GDP to 9% by 2030.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eNevertheless, the demographic factors that will make the United States an economic powerhouse by 2050\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eRegardless of political and social instability, the country that is expected to remain the most economically powerful in the coming decades is the United States.\u003cbr\u003e Exports account for only 10% of U.S. GDP, a very small share of the U.S. economy compared to China's 19% and the European Union's 47%.\u003cbr\u003e This characteristic of the United States is of great help as the wave of globalization gradually weakens, as the country has a domestic market with greater purchasing power than any other country.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e But demographically, the United States has a greater advantage.\u003cbr\u003e Comparing the birth rates of Germany, China, and the United States, Germany's birth rate has fallen below the replacement level since the late 1960s, while China's birth rate has remained low after a sharp decline from the 1960s to the 1990s. \u003cbr\u003eHowever, the U.S. birth rate remained at or near replacement level until the Great Recession began in 2009.\u003cbr\u003e Therefore, the U.S. population from 1991 to 2007 showed much more robust natural increase than China or Germany.\u003cbr\u003e As a result, today in the United States, the proportion of the population aged 15-30 is much larger than in China or Germany.\u003cbr\u003e Therefore, over the next 10-20 years, the U.S. workforce will decline less and the dependency ratio will rise more gradually than in other developed countries.\u003cbr\u003e Because of these age distribution characteristics, the United States will have a clear economic advantage during this period.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eSouth Korea leads the world in reducing its total fertility rate to 0.78 in 2022 and 0.68 in 2024.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e From 2002 to 2019, 31 of South Korea's 85 cities experienced population declines, with half of them losing more than 10%. \u003cbr\u003eKorea's population is increasingly concentrated around Seoul.\u003cbr\u003e In other words, Seoul itself is no longer growing, but the surrounding cities are growing at a rapid pace.\u003cbr\u003e The population of the satellite city of Incheon has increased by one million since 1992, and the populations of smaller cities such as Ansan and Uijeongbu have also doubled.\u003cbr\u003e Meanwhile, in Busan, Korea's second largest city, the population decreased by 400,000 during the same period.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e2050: Thriving without Growth on a Shrinking Earth\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Living on a shrinking planet requires a different mindset than we've been accustomed to.\u003cbr\u003e If population, GDP, and other growth trends were once considered the normal state of humankind in the 21st century, we must now accept that shrinking countries and cities are not a symbol of growth failure, but rather a reasonable path forward.\u003cbr\u003e The impacts of population change are challenges to be addressed, not consequences. \u003cbr\u003eUltimately, it is up to us to determine what consequences this change will bring.\u003cbr\u003e Unlike the frog in the boiling water, we will find a way out of the pot before it is too late. \u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:95%;padding-top:20px;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e GOODS SPECIFICS \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6em;\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003eDate of issue:\u003c\/strong\u003e January 20, 2024\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003ePage count, weight, size:\u003c\/strong\u003e 456 pages | 592g | 148*210*27mm\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003eISBN13:\u003c\/strong\u003e 9788993178524\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003eISBN10:\u003c\/strong\u003e 8993178526 \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cspan\u003e\u003c\/span\u003e\n\n\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/center\u003e","brand":"LIBRAIRIE COREENNE","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":43894494756906,"sku":"105257","price":31.0,"currency_code":"EUR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0683\/2750\/5962\/files\/58e593b206cd111262c569641c20a70f.jpg?v=1765435537","url":"https:\/\/librairie.coreenne.fr\/en\/products\/105257","provider":"LIBRAIRIE COREENNE","version":"1.0","type":"link"}