Who will survive the next 10 years?

Besides the short domestic trend,
We need to look at long-term 'global economic trends'!

Five Trends Forecasted by Top Macroeconomists and Veteran Investment Experts
Innovation, Climate, Globalization, Debt, and Aging

★ The Financial Times: "A must-read for investors."
★ Recommended by Forbes columnist and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) expert reviewer

The coming decade will be a period of uncertainty and shock for the global economy.
Rapidly advancing innovation and productivity, a deepening climate crisis, record-breaking debt, accelerating aging, and shaky globalization—all these variables cannot be addressed through mere forecasts or guesswork.
Many prophets tell us what will happen, but few answer the question, "How will we respond?"

The five megatrends this book focuses on are by no means independent keywords.
Innovation boosts productivity while also providing a starting point for tackling climate and debt challenges, while globalization alleviates labor shortages in aging societies while also sparking new conflicts.
By understanding this vast, intertwined flow, encompassing past and future cases, we can move beyond mere "prophets" who predict the future and become "magicians" who offer practical solutions in a complex world.
“The world needs more wizards than prophets.” That’s why you should read Global Economic Trends.

In short, the coming decades will present us with numerous challenges and equally numerous opportunities.
We hope this book will help readers seize that opportunity and ride the wave.
At least I hope I don't get swept away by the tsunami.
--- p.16, from the prologue

Most digital companies own intangible assets, and many have ecosystems that extend far beyond their corporate boundaries.
Examples include Uber cars and Airbnb rental properties.
Digital companies are far more ambiguous than their "physical" counterparts, not only about their fundamental value but also about the true sources of value creation.
Only through interviews with business leaders can we gain a clear understanding of the value of investing in intangible assets and their hidden value.
So, companies often provide additional information in the notes to their annual reports to convey their opinions to investors.
This is the only way to ensure that financial statements remain relevant and avoid the end of accounting.
--- p.91, from "I Innovation"

As investors, we need to look for innovative companies.
These companies create countless unique connections, grow exponentially, and over time, their stock prices almost inevitably rise.
In reality, it is impossible to track every company and look inside it as an outsider.
But clues can be found.
Does the company care about diversity? How many women are on the board? Does it give employees time to pursue side projects? What percentage of sales or profits is invested in R&D? How many patents does it file each year? How much collaboration does it have with other companies or universities? And most importantly, does the company have its own research institute or research center? These are the things we need to know.
--- p.121, from "I Innovation"

The more extreme the weather, the more it hurts the economy.
Simply put, if it's hot, you can't work.
A study conducted by Deryugina and Hsiang (2014) in several regions of the United States over 40 years found that when the average daily temperature exceeded 51°C, productivity decreased by 1.7% for every 1°C increase in temperature.
Persistent heat waves completely destroy productivity.
--- p.162, from “II Climate”

So how does globalization contribute to productivity? First, it promotes the spread of knowledge.
In today's interconnected world, innovation spreads like wildfire.
Globalization adds fuel to the fire.
When companies invest in overseas factories or services, they export knowledge to countries around the world.
The knowledge and expertise gained here will promote domestic productivity and growth.
--- p.206, from “III Globalization”

High government debt is not a problem as long as the debt burden remains manageable and future spending is controlled.
However, these two conditions may become questionable in the future.
After massive fiscal expansion during the pandemic, governments will face additional pressures from climate change, defense spending, aging infrastructure, a new Cold War with Russia and China, renewed demands on domestic industrial policy, and a deeply divided electorate that finds it difficult to prioritize the needs of one group over another.
--- p.289, from “IV Debt”

In the 1950s, pyramids around the world resembled pine trees with their branches reaching out to the ground.
The abrupt taper of the pyramid just above the base indicates the high infant mortality rate at the time.
One in five children does not live to see their fifth birthday.
Children have been at the heart of the story over the past 70 years.
After that, the population fills in above the base, and it changes into a rectangular shape with a pointed hat.
In developing countries in Africa and Asia, the working-age and elderly populations are growing explosively.
Improved health means that current and future generations will live longer than ever before.
--- p.342, from “V Aging”

Change always creates winners and losers.
When major changes occur, we talk about big winners and big losers.
Today we are at a point where enormous wealth can be created or lost.
Progress is not a straight path from poverty to wealth.
A messy and confusing road, especially dangerous for those who don't handle it properly.

--- p.371, from “V Aging”