Democratic Party in power = skyrocketing housing prices.
Will this formula still be valid in the Lee Jae-myung era?

So far, whenever the Democratic Party has been in power, housing prices have invariably risen.
As a result, the formula that 'house prices rise when a progressive government comes into power' has become deeply ingrained in people's minds.
So, will the same trend as in the past be repeated in the current Lee Jae-myung era?

Experts' outlook is also mixed.
Some predict an unconditional rise, while others say that an era of decline has begun.
Some people are predicting a slight decline, but it is unclear whether this will be in Seoul or in the provinces.
In unusual circumstances, predictions become even more confusing.

Samtosi, a leading expert in the real estate data field who has meticulously analyzed vast amounts of data to provide the most accurate market insights, says that this time, things may be different from the past.
This is because the policy direction of the Lee Jae-myung administration itself is different from that of previous Democratic Party administrations, and its influence will also change.
With the change of government arriving sooner than expected, will the newly inaugurated Lee Jae-myung administration follow the path of the previous Democratic Party administration or take a completely different path? Let's follow the author of "Samtosi" and examine the similarities and differences between the two, and how they will adapt to the changing market.

It remains difficult to predict whether the Lee Jae-myung administration will roll back the regulations of the previous administration or attempt another form of intervention.
But what's important is reading the 'direction and speed of policy change.'
Within it, we must soberly assess whether real change has begun, where opportunities lie, and where risks must be avoided.

This book is a journey to find that answer.
We will review the policies and regulations of past administrations, analyze currently announced policies, and examine key variables that can influence the market.
Based on the criteria I've experienced, analyzed, and pondered in the market, I plan to draw up a roadmap for "Where do we stand now and where do we go?"
We are now at a 'turning point' in the real estate market.
In a world where policy, interest rates, liquidity, and supply are all complex, I hope this book will serve as a rational compass for readers' judgment.

--- p.5

Many people viewed the Lee Jae-myung administration's first real estate regulation, the "June 27 Loan Regulation," as a policy of resolution, similar to the Moon Jae-in administration's "December 16 Measures."
Ultimately, the June 27 loan regulations, like the December 16 measures, are expected to be a short-term measure and the market will rise again.
But I don't think that will happen.
The biggest reason is that the fundamentals at the time the two policies were implemented were completely different.
In other words, the market fundamentals differed between December 2019, when the December 16 measures were implemented, and June 2025, when the June 27 loan regulations were implemented.

--- p.17

In particular, many are paying attention to the '600 million won limit on housing loan,' but equally important is the measure to 'reduce the total household loan target of the entire financial sector by 50% compared to the plan in the second half of the year.'
This can be interpreted as meaning that the government will allow banks to raise the premium rate (the loan rate minus the deposit rate), a key element of lending interest rates, from the current level of 1.3%.
In other words, this means that market interest rates may not fall as much as expected.
Of course, the impact of the '600 million won limit on housing mortgage loans' is also significant.

--- p.23

In summary, the hyper-polarization of the real estate market is likely to unfold in a different way than before.
The areas with the largest decreases in July and August compared to June were Seongdong-gu, Mapo-gu, Dongjak-gu, Gangdong-gu, and Gwangjin-gu, while the areas with the largest decreases in August compared to July were Gangnam-gu, Songpa-gu, Seocho-gu, Yangcheon-gu, and Yeongdeungpo-gu.
Judging from this, it can be confirmed that the higher the level of the loan, the greater the impact of the housing loan regulation of 600 million won.
Therefore, it is highly likely that the hyperpolarization phenomenon will be alleviated to some extent.

--- p.28

Given these remarks, it is expected that the Lee Jae-myung administration will take a different approach from the Moon Jae-in administration, unless it reverses the policy direction it has stated over the past several months.
However, there is one part of the recently announced '6.27 Loan Regulations' that shows a similar perspective to the Moon Jae-in administration.
This is the perception of ‘reconstruction and redevelopment.’
The previous Moon Jae-in administration's position was to recover profits generated from housing maintenance projects by introducing a system to recover excess profits from reconstruction projects.
However, what is puzzling is that, despite the Lee Jae-myung administration emphasizing the expansion of supply through relaxation of reconstruction and redevelopment regulations during the presidential election, the June 27 loan regulations reveal a completely opposite perception.
--- p.35

However, if regulations are introduced that reduce the current limit of 500 million won for jeonse loans, similar to the regulation of 'limiting the limit of housing mortgage loans to 600 million won', the story will be different.
For example, if the limit on jeonse loans is limited to 300 million won per household, tenants who want to move into apartments in Seoul with jeonse prices exceeding 1 billion won will have to come up with at least 700 million won on their own.
Even for high-income earners, this poses a significant barrier to entry for those in real need who lack cash assets.
Ultimately, it will become difficult for even the high-end rental market to avoid price adjustment pressure.

--- p.56

Based on these predictions, it is necessary to input and judge the direction of the key variables mentioned above.
Among them, the most important key variable is the Lee Jae-myung administration's stance on 'multiple home ownership regulations.'
If comprehensive regulations are strengthened, properties owned by rental housing operators will be released on the market, but the preference for 'one-room apartments' will be maintained or even strengthened, making it difficult to resolve the polarization of Seoul.
If there is a real will to resolve polarization, easing regulations on multiple homeowners must come first.
This is a moment when the Lee Jae-myung administration's ability to grasp the current situation and its policy will are put to the test.

--- p.79