Prologue | Stock investing is all about predicting the future market!

First yard
Stock investment: You must read the trends to succeed!

Chapter 1: No one will earn money for me!
Even if the bubble is severe and the stock price crashes, no one will stop you.
Even experts don't know the trend
Investment advisors want to sell high-margin products.
There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Judging the current situation, you must now do it yourself.
[Wait a minute] The most fundamental indicator for stock investment: the price-to-earnings ratio (PER).

Chapter 2 What are stock market trends, and can they be predicted?
Stock prices don't rise endlessly or fall endlessly.
The higher the mountain, the deeper the valley
Investment experts read and adapt to trends!
Knowing the economic trends reveals the stock market's trends.

Second yard
Deciphering 6 economic indicators reveals stock prices!

Chapter 3: If you are a stock investor, you must know how to diagnose the economy!
The basic principle is that the economy must be good for the trend to rise.
How do you judge whether a game is good or bad?

Chapter 4: Trend Determining Factor 1: GDP Growth Rate
The GDP growth rate determines whether the economy is good or bad.
The ultimate goal of economic activity is growth, and the key indicator of growth is GDP growth rate.
[Wait a minute] Why is GDP growth rate a key factor in judging stock market trends?
[Wait a minute] How do I find the GDP growth rate on the IMF website?
To accurately assess GDP growth, focus on potential growth.
Measure the depth of booms and busts with the GDP gap.
[Wait a minute] What is the government's plan to address the sharp decline in potential growth rate?
When the GDP gap is large, prices and interest rates influence the overall trend.
Changes in the composite economic index signal changes in the GDP growth rate.
[Wait a minute] How do I find out the composite economic index?
[Wait a minute] What is the difference between the leading economic index, coincident economic index, and lagging economic index?
Correlation between GDP growth and the Japanese stock market decline
[Wait a minute] Other auxiliary indicators for understanding the economy
Why was Japan's GDP growth rate so low?
To forecast Korea's GDP growth rate, look at the growth rates of the US and China.
[Just follow along] Judging stock market trends based on GDP growth rates

Chapter 5: Trend Determining Factor 2: Prices
Prices are falling. Will stock prices rise or fall?
Inflationary Situation: Two Conditions for Stock Price Rise
If there is deflation, the stock market will not rise.
[Wait a minute] Price index, why is it based on the consumer price index?
[Wait a minute] How do I find the price index?
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend based on the inflation rate

Chapter 6: Trend Determining Factor 3: Interest Rates
Interest rates and stock prices move in opposite directions.
Interest rate trends also serve as a criterion for judging the current situation.
What are the criteria for judging whether interest rates are high or low?
[Wait a minute] Where and how can I check the interest rate?
The government's economic policy begins with interest rates.
[Wait a minute] Types of interest rates
It's advantageous to sell when interest rates go down, and to buy when they go up!
[Wait a minute] You can also predict changes in stock market trends by looking at the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates!
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend with interest rates

Chapter 7: Trend Determining Factor 4: Exchange Rate
Exchange rate, which indicates the value of money between countries
The dollar, yen, euro, and yuan are currently in a fierce currency war.
[Wait a minute] What is a reserve currency?
The exchange rate is a leading indicator of stock prices.
A sharp rise or fall in the exchange rate is a downward factor in the stock market.
[Wait a minute] Want to check the exchange rate?
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend with exchange rates

Chapter 8: Factor 5 influencing the trend: Balance of payments
What is the balance of payments?
If the balance of payments is in surplus, the stock market is strong.
The balance of payments and exchange rates are like two sides of the same coin.
[Wait a minute] Where and how can I learn about the balance of payments?
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend with the balance of payments

Chapter 9: Trend Determining Factor 6: Market EPS
Stock prices reflect a company's management status.
The higher the market EPS growth rate, the higher the upward trend; the lower the rate, the higher the trend.
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend with market EPS.

Third yard
Looking back on 45 years of KOSPI, we can see the future!

Chapter 10: The 45-Year History of the KOSPI's Rise and Fall
Rise and fall, every trend has a common denominator.

Chapter 11: The First Rising Period Driven by Construction Stock Speculation
Background of the rising trend

Chapter 12: Construction Stocks Crash! The First Major Downturn
Background of the downward trend

Chapter 13: The Big Hand Jang Young-ja Appears! The Second Rise of the World
Background of the rising trend

Chapter 14: The Second Great Recession: Investors Turn Their Backs on the Stock Market
Background of the downward trend

Chapter 15: The First Trend of the Stock Market, Left Behind by Investors
Background of the trend
[Wait a minute] What is a theme stock?

Chapter 16: KOSPI Breaks 1000 for the First Time! The Third Great Uptrend
Background of the rising trend

Chapter 17: The 1988 Olympics Bubble Exhausted! The Third Great Recession
Background of the downward trend

Chapter 18: Foreign Direct Investment Allowed! The Fourth Great Upswing
Background of the rising trend

Chapter 19: The IMF Foreign Exchange Crisis! The Fourth Great Depression
Background of the downward trend

Chapter 20: Boosting Venture Businesses! The Fifth Great Rise
Background of the rising trend

Chapter 21: The Venture Business Bubble Bursts! The Fifth Great Recession
Background of the downward trend

Chapter 22: KOSPI Breaks 2000 for the First Time! The 6th Major Uptrend
Background of the rising trend

Chapter 23: The Subprime Financial Crisis! The Sixth Great Downturn
Background of the downward trend

Chapter 24: Global Quantitative Easing! The 7th Great Rise
Background of the rising trend
[Wait a minute] What is quantitative easing?

The stock market is trapped in a 25-day box-type "trap"! Second major trend sideways movement.
Background of the trend

Chapter 26: Breaking Through the Long-Term Sideways Movement! The 8th Major Uptrend
Background of the rising trend

Chapter 27: The US-China Trade Dispute and the Corona Pandemic! The 7th Great Recession
Background of the downward trend
[Wait a minute] Is it possible for the new 3 lows to lead to a major uptrend?

Fourth yard
Determine the stock market trend with a 3-step check!

Chapter 28, Step 1: Determining Boom, Recession, Depression, and Recovery by Using the GDP Gap
GDP gap, the primary indicator of economic diagnosis
Characteristics of each phase of the business cycle
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend using the GDP gap.

Chapter 29 Step 2: Check the inflation rate
How can rising prices lead to a rising stock market?
Inflation, whether high or low, is bad news for the stock market.
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend based on economic growth and inflation.

Chapter 30, Step 3: Calculating the Yield Gap
When is the right time to invest in stocks?
[Wait a minute] What is a safe asset?
If the yield gap is positive, invest actively; if it is negative, invest in safe assets!
Calculating the yield gap
[Wait a minute] How to find the market PER
[Wait a minute] How do I check the fixed interest rate?
What is the yield gap when the market PER is 8-60 times?
Sometimes human greed shakes up the market.
[Wait a minute] You can also judge stock market trends by looking at the market capitalization-to-GDP ratio.
[Just follow along] Judging the pros and cons of stock investments using the yield gap.

Fifth yard
Read the mid-term trend through supply and demand and events!

Chapter 31: A rising tide lifts all boats.
When money comes into the stock market
When money flows out of the stock market

[Wait a minute] Trends in surrounding funds in the stock market, such as customer deposits and stock fund establishment amounts
Where can I see it?
[Wait a minute] What is liquidity and how does it differ from idle funds?

Chapter 32: Let's divide major incidents into economic and non-economic incidents.
A major incident that requires a long period of time to recover from the shock
A major incident that causes a temporary shock and passes
Unification of North and South Korea is a negative factor in the short term, but a positive factor in the long term!

Chapter 33: The Stock Market Rally: A Medium-Term Trend Perspective
Santa Rally
Honeymoon Rally
Summer Rally
Calendar effect
[Just follow along] Judging mid-term trends based on materials, events, and supply and demand.

Sixth yard
Identify the turning point through investment sentiment!

Chapter 34: Stock Investing is a Psychological War
KTF investment blows the value of a Gangnam apartment
If you reach your target rate of return, sell boldly.

Chapter 35: How do people's minds move during ups and downs?
Investment sentiment when the upward trend turns downward
Characteristics of each investor type
A personality that is well suited to stock investment
Investor sentiment when the stock market is at the bottom
Investor sentiment when stock prices break through the bottom and turn upward
Investment sentiment during a major uptrend and a major climax
Human nature brings bubbles
To succeed in the stock market, you need to be able to read economic changes.

Chapter 36: Signals at Trend Turning Points
Signs that the trend is hitting rock bottom
Signs that the trend is reaching its peak
Don't be overly excited or depressed by stock price fluctuations.
[Just Follow] Judging the Stock Market Trend with Investment Sentiment

Seventh yard
Check the trend with the chart!

Chapter 37: Stock Market Trends: Predict or Respond?
Forecasting_Stock prices can be predicted by looking at economic factors!
Correspondence theory_Just analyze the graph!
Rely on predictions 70% of the time, and react 30% of the time.

Chapter 38: How to Check Trends with Graphs
Judge long-term trends based on monthly charts, and mid-term trends based on weekly charts.
Trend lines and moving averages can be used to identify trend changes.
To understand the Korean stock market, it is essential to refer to global indices.
Method 1: Identifying the trend using trend lines
Method 2: Identifying the Trend Using Moving Averages
[Wait a minute] What do Golden Cross and Dead Cross mean?
Method 3: Identifying Trends with Elliott Wave Theory
[Wait a minute] What is the Fibonacci sequence?
[Just follow along] Judging the stock market trend with graphs

Eighth yard
If you read the trend, act like this!

Chapter 39: Investment Strategies for the Rising Phase
1.
Increase your stock holdings and actively participate in leading stocks.
2.
Invest in stock funds
[Wait a minute] If you're having trouble choosing stocks, ETFs are the way to go.
[Wait a minute] Types and characteristics of funds
3.
Use a strategy to maximize investment returns using leverage.

Chapter 40: Investment Strategies in a Bearish Market
1.
Reduce stock holdings as much as possible
2.
Reduce the proportion of stock funds and increase the proportion of bond funds.
3.
Use a hedging strategy
4.
Buy an inverse ETF
5.
Actively exploit the downward trend by using leverage.
[Just Follow] Learn investment strategies based on stock market trends.

Epilogue | He who knows the tides laughs last!

Read and ride the huge stock market trends.
If you don't know, you won't see the huge signs of a bull or bear market.

ㆍThe reason individual investors cannot keep up with the investment trends of foreigners and institutions is because they do not know the trend.
ㆍ6 essential facts about bull and bear markets that you need to know to avoid being swept away by investment.
ㆍExplore the history of KOSPI and develop your own insight to foresee its future!

Foreign investors and institutions reveal their methods for interpreting economic indicators to predict future stock prices.
Blindly following stock market trends

Read and ride the huge stock market trends.
Signs of a Trend You Must Know to Ride It

The Korean stock market, which had been briefly stagnant since its bull market in 2018, is now more active than ever as numerous retail investors flock to the market due to the impact of COVID-19.
Latecomer investors who jump on the never-ending stock market boom dream of a bright future, intoxicated by beginner's luck, but only those who are prepared can taste sweet success.
I need to understand the current state of the stock market and whether the right time to get in is during a bull market.

You can't time your stock trades without knowing the trend.
Everyone fails to recognize the bull market that everyone knows about, and in a bear market, they become anxious and confused.
Why can't individual investors ride the wave of the massive stock market? Why do the movements of institutions and foreign investors diverge so dramatically from those of individuals?
The reason is because they don't know the trend.
Gilbut's "Stock Trend Judgment: Just Follow It" teaches investors how to check the economic factors that influence stock market trends, read economic trends, and determine whether a market is truly bullish or bearish.

If you can't trust the newspapers or experts, pay attention to these six trend indicators!
Now you can read the buy and sell timing on your own!

Beyond journalists and experts, even individual investors are now talking about how they view future stock prices.
Information is overwhelming, but without a standard to interpret and support it, you'll be left confused no matter what you hear.
In particular, numerous pieces of information only provide information and do not take responsibility for the success or failure of my stock investment.
That is why I desperately need to have the insight to properly judge the trend and read the timing of buying and selling.
The stock market is so full of variables that it is impossible to predict the movement of a specific stock price.
But when looking at the stock market as a whole, there is clearly a huge trend.
The representative indicators for judging the trend are broadly divided into six categories: GDP growth rate, interest rates, prices, exchange rates, balance of payments, and market EPS.
This section explains where to find publicly available economic indicators and indices and how to interpret them.

If you review the history of KOSPI's rises, falls, and sideways movements, you can see the future!
A look at history at a glance, from the construction stock speculation of the 1970s to the COVID-19 crisis of 2020!

Since 1975, when the Korean stock market began to take on the appearance of a proper securities market, the KOSPI has repeatedly experienced periods of upward trend, downward trend, and sideways movement for 45 years.
Whenever there was a rise, fall, or sideways movement, there were also common economic indicators.
This overview summarizes the 45-year history of the KOSPI, from its initial boom in the 1970s, driven by construction speculation, to its 5-year and 6-month period of sideways trading and its subsequent bull market in 2017, to the 2020 market volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Check for yourself what the stock price trend was at the time and what common indicators showed trends.
With the commentary of author Jae-su Yoon, trusted by over a million readers, you'll learn how to invest going forward.

Industry experts, including analysts and fund managers, reveal their information gathering methods!

Every stock investor has his or her own way of reading the market and judging trends.
However, to properly read the market, you need to know what important economic indicators are and how to interpret each one correctly.
Just as we cannot afford to have a patient's MRI scan misinterpreted and their condition worsen, the same cannot be said for economic indicators.
The special appendix, “12 Priority Economic Indicators,” details how to search for and utilize economic indicators that influence market trends, including “How to Find GDP Growth Rates on the IMF Website,” “Fund Trends Around the Stock Market,” and “How to Understand the Current Status of Foreign Investment,” so please be sure to read it in advance.

※This book is the 3rd revised edition of 『Stock Trend Judgment: Just Follow It』, published by Gilbut in 2011.