How Data Becomes a Weapon in Life
 |
Description
Book Introduction
“You can make better decisions.”
This book will change the way we make major decisions in life.
Important and big decisions are always difficult.
We consult with friends and family, seek out confusing advice from "experts" online, and read self-help books for guidance.
And then in the end, you just choose the one that 'feels right'.
We end up making major life decisions and choices based purely on gut instinct, such as how we date, who we marry, where we live, and what makes us happy.
As legendary behavioral scientists have discovered, emotions and intuition often lead us astray.
As Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman argue, our minds are full of biases, and our intuition is an unreliable guide.
Also, we are often overly optimistic.
We overestimate the importance of easily remembered stories and cling to information that matches what we want to believe.
We mistakenly conclude that we can explain unpredictable events.
If we were to list the errors of intuition, it would be endless.
(That's why the original title of this book is Don't Trust Your Gut.) Now, there is a new alternative.
This book will change the way we make major decisions in life.
Important and big decisions are always difficult.
We consult with friends and family, seek out confusing advice from "experts" online, and read self-help books for guidance.
And then in the end, you just choose the one that 'feels right'.
We end up making major life decisions and choices based purely on gut instinct, such as how we date, who we marry, where we live, and what makes us happy.
As legendary behavioral scientists have discovered, emotions and intuition often lead us astray.
As Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman argue, our minds are full of biases, and our intuition is an unreliable guide.
Also, we are often overly optimistic.
We overestimate the importance of easily remembered stories and cling to information that matches what we want to believe.
We mistakenly conclude that we can explain unpredictable events.
If we were to list the errors of intuition, it would be endless.
(That's why the original title of this book is Don't Trust Your Gut.) Now, there is a new alternative.
- You can preview some of the book's contents.
Preview
index
Beyond "Moneyball" to "Lifeball" _Song Gil-young
Preface: A self-help book for data lovers.
Moneyball for your life
Life also has its own 'infield shifts'
From "Everyone Lies" to "How Data Becomes a Weapon in Life"
From God to feeling, from feeling to data
Chapter 1. Marriage in the AI Age
What kind of lover do people want?
What Predicts a Happy Relationship?
Data science says: "The problem isn't you, it's me."
The importance of appearance is overrated: And here's some advice you've heard for ages and always ignored, but now you know it's backed up by data.
Love's Ukilis: Highlight Undervalued Assets
Who would be the best match?: Someone who is satisfied with life, loves themselves, and sincerely strives to be a better person.
Aren't things between two people ultimately random and unpredictable?
Chapter 2.
The Secret to Raising a Successful Child: The Neighborhood Matters
The influence of parents on their children
The influence of the neighborhood is this great.
I'll show you mathematically why neighborhood is the most important.
Why is a good neighborhood good?
Case 1: The Power of Female Innovator Role Models
Case 2: The Power of Black Male Role Models
Why Adult Role Models Are So Important
What Your Child Needs: A Desirable Adult Role Model
Chapter 3.
The most plausible way to succeed in sports without talent
How to Calculate How to Get into College with an Athletic Scholarship
The baseball team isn't just called the Twins.
I have basketball genes
Baseball genes and football genes are less important
Don't assume there are any riding or diving genes.
Chapter 4.
Who are America's hidden rich?
Data on the wealthy in America
The rich man is the president of the company.
The rich man is the president of a good company.
Is it crazy to want to be a famous celebrity?
The rich escape price competition.
The rich don't compete with multinational corporations.
Chapter 5.
The long and tedious journey to success
Myth 1: The younger you are, the better it is for you to start a business.
Myth 2: Being a loner is advantageous for entrepreneurship.
Myth 3: The Power of the Periphery
A counterintuitive idea
Trust the data: Success requires patience.
Chapter 6.
The secret to catching luck
Learning from the World of Art: How to Attract Luck
The Mona Lisa Effect: The World's Most Famous Painting Was a Luck
The Da Vinci Effect: It's the artist, not the work, that matters.
Springsteen's Law: Look for Opportunities While Traveling
Picasso's Law: Let luck roll in through prolific production.
Picasso's Rules for Dating
Picasso's Rule for Job Seekers
Chapter 7.
Data Geek's Appearance Transformation
Appearance is important
Your appearance depends on how you look at it.
The world's most unique appearance transformation
A 3-Step Approach to Finding Out When You're Most Attractive
Chapter 8.
Life changes when you kick off the couch
Misconceptions about what makes us happy
Misunderstandings about what makes us happy
Cognitive Bias: Memories of Pleasure and Pain Are Distorted
Smartphones: A revolutionary tool that allowed us to study how smartphones make people unhappy.
List of activities that bring happiness
Underrated and Overrated Activities
I hate to say this, but Larry David is wrong.
Put this book down to be happy?
Chapter 9.
The trap that leads modern people to misery
The trap called 'work'
The trap of 'not spending enough time with friends or lovers'
The trap called 'social media'
The trap called sports
The trap called 'alcohol'
The trap of 'nature deprivation'
Conclusion: Finding Data-Driven Solutions for Life
Preface: A self-help book for data lovers.
Moneyball for your life
Life also has its own 'infield shifts'
From "Everyone Lies" to "How Data Becomes a Weapon in Life"
From God to feeling, from feeling to data
Chapter 1. Marriage in the AI Age
What kind of lover do people want?
What Predicts a Happy Relationship?
Data science says: "The problem isn't you, it's me."
The importance of appearance is overrated: And here's some advice you've heard for ages and always ignored, but now you know it's backed up by data.
Love's Ukilis: Highlight Undervalued Assets
Who would be the best match?: Someone who is satisfied with life, loves themselves, and sincerely strives to be a better person.
Aren't things between two people ultimately random and unpredictable?
Chapter 2.
The Secret to Raising a Successful Child: The Neighborhood Matters
The influence of parents on their children
The influence of the neighborhood is this great.
I'll show you mathematically why neighborhood is the most important.
Why is a good neighborhood good?
Case 1: The Power of Female Innovator Role Models
Case 2: The Power of Black Male Role Models
Why Adult Role Models Are So Important
What Your Child Needs: A Desirable Adult Role Model
Chapter 3.
The most plausible way to succeed in sports without talent
How to Calculate How to Get into College with an Athletic Scholarship
The baseball team isn't just called the Twins.
I have basketball genes
Baseball genes and football genes are less important
Don't assume there are any riding or diving genes.
Chapter 4.
Who are America's hidden rich?
Data on the wealthy in America
The rich man is the president of the company.
The rich man is the president of a good company.
Is it crazy to want to be a famous celebrity?
The rich escape price competition.
The rich don't compete with multinational corporations.
Chapter 5.
The long and tedious journey to success
Myth 1: The younger you are, the better it is for you to start a business.
Myth 2: Being a loner is advantageous for entrepreneurship.
Myth 3: The Power of the Periphery
A counterintuitive idea
Trust the data: Success requires patience.
Chapter 6.
The secret to catching luck
Learning from the World of Art: How to Attract Luck
The Mona Lisa Effect: The World's Most Famous Painting Was a Luck
The Da Vinci Effect: It's the artist, not the work, that matters.
Springsteen's Law: Look for Opportunities While Traveling
Picasso's Law: Let luck roll in through prolific production.
Picasso's Rules for Dating
Picasso's Rule for Job Seekers
Chapter 7.
Data Geek's Appearance Transformation
Appearance is important
Your appearance depends on how you look at it.
The world's most unique appearance transformation
A 3-Step Approach to Finding Out When You're Most Attractive
Chapter 8.
Life changes when you kick off the couch
Misconceptions about what makes us happy
Misunderstandings about what makes us happy
Cognitive Bias: Memories of Pleasure and Pain Are Distorted
Smartphones: A revolutionary tool that allowed us to study how smartphones make people unhappy.
List of activities that bring happiness
Underrated and Overrated Activities
I hate to say this, but Larry David is wrong.
Put this book down to be happy?
Chapter 9.
The trap that leads modern people to misery
The trap called 'work'
The trap of 'not spending enough time with friends or lovers'
The trap called 'social media'
The trap called sports
The trap called 'alcohol'
The trap of 'nature deprivation'
Conclusion: Finding Data-Driven Solutions for Life
Detailed image
Into the book
You can make better decisions.
Big data will help you.
(...) The second connection between 『Everyone Lies』 and this book is that this book also uses data to uncover the secrets of modern life.
One of the reasons data is so useful for making smart decisions is that fundamental information about the world is invisible to us.
The secrets of people who get what they want in life have been revealed by big data.
---"preface.
From "Self-help books for people who love data"
Among the results from more than 3 million measurements were some provocative.
For example, for sports fans, the pain they feel when their team loses is greater than the joy they feel when their team wins.
The happiness-boosting effect of alcohol consumption was greater when doing housework than when hanging out with friends.
Some of the analysis results were profound.
For example, work tended to make people unhappy, except when working with friends.
(...) I will conclude this book with a credible formula for happiness, distilled from millions of smartphone messages.
I call that formula the "Data-Driven Life Solution."
---"preface.
From "Self-help books for people who love data"
If you're single right now, invest your energy in dating someone who doesn't have the traits everyone wants.
Pay more attention to people who are mentally stable.
Once you're in a relationship, focus only on how happy you are when you're with the other person, and don't worry or have unfounded confidence about the similarities or differences between you and the other person.
Don't think you have the ability to recognize which relationships are happy now but will fall apart later, or which are shaky now but will be happy later.
If the world's greatest modern scientists, using unprecedentedly extensive datasets, can't predict such a relationship shift, neither can you.
---From "Chapter 1. Marriage in the AI Era"
“Don’t think too hard about it.” I think that was the best scientifically backed parenting advice around 2011, the year Kaplan wrote his book.
Evidence has been mounting since 2011 that the combined effects of all parents' actions are smaller than people think, and that even the best decisions parents make about the issues they care about have little measurable impact on their children's futures.
But now one important fact is coming to light.
Because some evidence suggests that one of the decisions parents make is important and worth considering deeply.
Now I would like to give this advice to parents:
“Don’t think too deeply…….
“Except for one thing.”
---「Chapter 2.
The Secret to Raising Children Well: The Neighborhood is Important
Before seeing this data, I would have told people who dream of success as independent artists, “Unless you inherited a fortune, that’s a stupid idea.”
But after seeing this data, I think I'll take a neutral stance.
Instead, I would tell them that it would be foolish to try to become an artist without following the "How to Maximize Your Chances of Getting Lucky" method I'll introduce in Chapter 6.
But if you put in the effort, I don't think pursuing the path of an artist is a foolish challenge.
It's even better if you're young.
---「Chapter 4.
From "Who is America's Hidden Rich?"
There is a clear formula for increasing the chances of business success.
The formula is to follow a path similar to the one that Fadell took.
After years of building expertise and connections, demonstrating success in a field, and then starting your own business in middle age! New data has emerged that shatters conventional wisdom about entrepreneurship.
---「Chapter 5.
From "The Long and Boring Journey to Success"
People who make data-driven decisions can increase their chances of being selected and successful by doing things like promoting themselves in various locations.
Let me change it to my favorite expression.
'Luck favors those who make decisions based on data.'
---「Chapter 6.
From “The Secret to Grabbing Luck”
We tend to obsess over problems that exist only in our own heads.
As if I was wondering what kind of smile to give.
Most of us go through life without ever considering that changing our style could significantly improve our appearance.
Like I lived without a beard for 10 years.
And most of us don't know ourselves accurately.
Just as I was convinced that glasses didn't suit me.
What I'm trying to say is that our appearance matters, our appearance can be improved, and we're not very good at judging our own appearance.
These propositions are strongly supported by research results.
To put it another way, the combination of artificial intelligence, rapid market research, and statistical analysis is better than a mirror.
---「Chapter 7.
From "Data Geek's Appearance Transformation"
One of the structural biases people have is overestimating the happiness that passive activities bring.
See the list of 'overrated activities'.
Sleep, rest, play games, watch TV, eat snacks, and surf the internet.
These activities do not require much energy.
Our minds seem to be tricked into thinking that these passive activities bring us more pleasure than they actually do.
Ask people how happy they think someone doing this passive activity would be, as Greenberg and I did in our experiment.
And ask them how happy they are when they are actually doing these passive activities, like in the Mapinism project.
The results do not match.
People think that passive activities bring great happiness, but in reality, this is not the case.
Big data will help you.
(...) The second connection between 『Everyone Lies』 and this book is that this book also uses data to uncover the secrets of modern life.
One of the reasons data is so useful for making smart decisions is that fundamental information about the world is invisible to us.
The secrets of people who get what they want in life have been revealed by big data.
---"preface.
From "Self-help books for people who love data"
Among the results from more than 3 million measurements were some provocative.
For example, for sports fans, the pain they feel when their team loses is greater than the joy they feel when their team wins.
The happiness-boosting effect of alcohol consumption was greater when doing housework than when hanging out with friends.
Some of the analysis results were profound.
For example, work tended to make people unhappy, except when working with friends.
(...) I will conclude this book with a credible formula for happiness, distilled from millions of smartphone messages.
I call that formula the "Data-Driven Life Solution."
---"preface.
From "Self-help books for people who love data"
If you're single right now, invest your energy in dating someone who doesn't have the traits everyone wants.
Pay more attention to people who are mentally stable.
Once you're in a relationship, focus only on how happy you are when you're with the other person, and don't worry or have unfounded confidence about the similarities or differences between you and the other person.
Don't think you have the ability to recognize which relationships are happy now but will fall apart later, or which are shaky now but will be happy later.
If the world's greatest modern scientists, using unprecedentedly extensive datasets, can't predict such a relationship shift, neither can you.
---From "Chapter 1. Marriage in the AI Era"
“Don’t think too hard about it.” I think that was the best scientifically backed parenting advice around 2011, the year Kaplan wrote his book.
Evidence has been mounting since 2011 that the combined effects of all parents' actions are smaller than people think, and that even the best decisions parents make about the issues they care about have little measurable impact on their children's futures.
But now one important fact is coming to light.
Because some evidence suggests that one of the decisions parents make is important and worth considering deeply.
Now I would like to give this advice to parents:
“Don’t think too deeply…….
“Except for one thing.”
---「Chapter 2.
The Secret to Raising Children Well: The Neighborhood is Important
Before seeing this data, I would have told people who dream of success as independent artists, “Unless you inherited a fortune, that’s a stupid idea.”
But after seeing this data, I think I'll take a neutral stance.
Instead, I would tell them that it would be foolish to try to become an artist without following the "How to Maximize Your Chances of Getting Lucky" method I'll introduce in Chapter 6.
But if you put in the effort, I don't think pursuing the path of an artist is a foolish challenge.
It's even better if you're young.
---「Chapter 4.
From "Who is America's Hidden Rich?"
There is a clear formula for increasing the chances of business success.
The formula is to follow a path similar to the one that Fadell took.
After years of building expertise and connections, demonstrating success in a field, and then starting your own business in middle age! New data has emerged that shatters conventional wisdom about entrepreneurship.
---「Chapter 5.
From "The Long and Boring Journey to Success"
People who make data-driven decisions can increase their chances of being selected and successful by doing things like promoting themselves in various locations.
Let me change it to my favorite expression.
'Luck favors those who make decisions based on data.'
---「Chapter 6.
From “The Secret to Grabbing Luck”
We tend to obsess over problems that exist only in our own heads.
As if I was wondering what kind of smile to give.
Most of us go through life without ever considering that changing our style could significantly improve our appearance.
Like I lived without a beard for 10 years.
And most of us don't know ourselves accurately.
Just as I was convinced that glasses didn't suit me.
What I'm trying to say is that our appearance matters, our appearance can be improved, and we're not very good at judging our own appearance.
These propositions are strongly supported by research results.
To put it another way, the combination of artificial intelligence, rapid market research, and statistical analysis is better than a mirror.
---「Chapter 7.
From "Data Geek's Appearance Transformation"
One of the structural biases people have is overestimating the happiness that passive activities bring.
See the list of 'overrated activities'.
Sleep, rest, play games, watch TV, eat snacks, and surf the internet.
These activities do not require much energy.
Our minds seem to be tricked into thinking that these passive activities bring us more pleasure than they actually do.
Ask people how happy they think someone doing this passive activity would be, as Greenberg and I did in our experiment.
And ask them how happy they are when they are actually doing these passive activities, like in the Mapinism project.
The results do not match.
People think that passive activities bring great happiness, but in reality, this is not the case.
---「Chapter 8.
From "Life changes when you kick off the sofa"
From "Life changes when you kick off the sofa"
Publisher's Review
The secrets of people who get what they want in life have been revealed by big data.
The big data revolution offers us new alternatives to listening to our own voices.
In the early 21st century, the role of statistical analysis in baseball began to grow rapidly.
The emergence of so-called sabermetrics (baseball statistical analysis techniques).
The new principles introduced to the public through the book and film "Moneyball" have also brought about changes in many other areas, based on the powerful premise that "data is useful in correcting our biases."
For example, most cutting-edge companies in Silicon Valley operate based on the 'Moneyball' principle.
Google, for example, is known for placing firm trust in the power of data above all else when making important decisions.
Medallion Fund, which trades stocks solely based on data patterns, has effectively surpassed the "efficient market hypothesis" by generating returns significantly higher than the S&P 500 every year since its inception.
So, can important decisions in everyday life be made as data-driven as those in sports or IT startups? the author asks.
"Are we more like the 2002 Athletics, or like other baseball teams from that year? Are we more like Google, or like a corner store? Are we more like Renaissance Technologies, or like a traditional asset manager?"
I was watching a baseball game and I became curious.
What if we took a data-driven approach to making important life decisions? What if we ran our personal lives the way Billy Beane ran the Oakland Athletics? Approaching life in that way is becoming increasingly easier.
In my previous book, Everybody Lies, I explored how the new data available through the Internet is transforming our understanding of society and the human mind.
The statistical revolution in baseball came first thanks to data demanded and collected by fans obsessed with baseball statistics.
Now, a 'Lifeball' revolution, not just a 'Moneyball' revolution, is possible.
Thanks to all the data our smartphones and computers collect.
_In the preface
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, an economist and former Google data scientist, became a New York Times bestselling author in 2017 with his first book, Everybody Lies.
In this follow-up book, released five years after Everybody Lies, he focuses on how often we get things wrong when making crucial decisions for a better life.
“Seth is the ultimate data storyteller!” —Steven Levitt, author of Freakonomics
Can't we learn from the lives of humanity, rather than from the advice or intuition of a few people? Here's a book full of hints.
This is a life-size version of Moneyball, which derived the best winning strategy through efficient resource allocation from sabermetrics, which is full of statistics on baseball players.
Plus, it's incredibly fun.
(Omitted) The answer is in this book.
I'm grateful to the author for demonstrating that we can find "data-driven solutions to life" from the vast accumulation of human data, and I recommend this book to anyone who wants to learn the secret.
_Mind Minor Song Gil-young, in 'Recommendation'
Relationships, success, money, happiness… Leave the keys to success to data.
How can we make the countless decisions that shape our lives? Reliable answers lie hidden in today's massive datasets.
* Who should I marry?
* What predicts a happy relationship?
* How can I become a good parent?
* What are my chances of becoming a celebrity?
* Who are the truly hidden rich people?
* How can I become that rich?
* Am I too old to start a business now?
* Why are some people exceptionally lucky?
* How can I change my appearance to look the best?
* What can people do to become happy?
Even in the 20th century, precise and systematic data on the question, "What makes people happy?" was not available.
At best, the research was conducted with only a few dozen data measurements.
But now, using smartphones, we can build an unprecedentedly large dataset of happiness.
And some of the results we get here are provocative, challenging our expectations and common sense.
Over the past decade, scholars have mined massive datasets to develop novel approaches to life's biggest self-improvement challenges.
Data from hundreds of thousands of dating site accounts reveals some surprising strategies for making dates happen.
Data from hundreds of millions of tax records reveals which neighborhoods are best for raising children.
Data tracking the careers of millions of people has uncovered the secrets of those who rise to the top.
It tells us when the best time is to start a business, and how happy we actually are when we skip our friend's birthday party and spend the evening binge-watching Netflix on the couch.
He tells us about the most lucrative yet boring careers, and reminds us that old dating advice that feels like a joke because you've heard it so many times is actually data-backed truth.
Based on data
Break the stereotypes and increase your chances of success.
We think we know how to live better lives, but the data tells us otherwise! Hard facts and figures often clash with our instincts.
And it's the numbers that teach us the laws of life that actually work.
Inspired by an idea that occurred to me while watching a baseball game, the author has spent the past four years meeting countless researchers and delving into research papers to uncover novel and compelling stories woven into the latest big data research and numbers.
The author's own research and interpretation are also included, and the book unfolds in the hope that everyone who reads this book will become the 'Billy Beane' of their own life in various areas such as marriage, parenting, sports, finance, business management, luck, appearance, and happiness.
The story begins with the question, “Who should I marry? Can an algorithm help me decide ‘who to marry’?” (Chapter 1).
Drawing on massive data gleaned from dating apps, this book offers sobering and realistic wisdom on the question, "Is relationship happiness predictable?"
Next, for the countless parents who are struggling to find ways to become better parents, we provide new insights into what makes a good parent, drawing on recent datasets—specifically, the tax records of hundreds of millions of Americans (Chapter 2).
He then goes a step further and presents (with the author's autobiographical humor) the latest data for those hoping to help their children succeed in sports (Chapter 3).
Chapters 4 through 7 mainly discuss how to achieve professional success.
For example, who are the real hidden rich in the US? (Chapter 4) Can we honestly say what kind of people they are? (Chapter 4) Four economists use de-identified data from the IRS on all US taxpayers to reveal who the hidden rich in the US (the top 0.1 percent of earners) are.
And the truly rich weren't the people we usually expect.
This groundbreaking study, Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century, tells the story not of a handful of famous Silicon Valley billionaires, but of more than 140,000 wealthy people who earn more than $1.58 million a year.
The typical wealthy American, researchers found, was the owner of a local business, such as a car dealer or a liquor wholesaler.
Next, what factors determine who succeeds? Recently, data scientists have amassed a dataset on the world of entrepreneurs and discovered unexpected variables that predict success.
Is entrepreneurship really a field where young, energetic people have a higher chance of success? Chapter 5 dispels some preconceptions about entrepreneurial success and introduces a credible formula, derived from data.
But to be honest, luck also plays a big role in success.
Chapter 6 explores how luck works through big data, including sales figures from hundreds of thousands of artists.
Could we, too, become lucky by leveraging insights gleaned from data? Furthermore, could we leverage new lessons learned from machine learning and personal data sets to discover ways to best represent ourselves? (Chapter 7) Chapters 8 and 9 delve deeper into what makes people happy or unhappy.
Previous, small-scale studies have suggested that we humans have a poor grasp of what makes us happy, and our inherent cognitive biases have played a role.
The results of the 'Maffinis Project' research using a massive happiness dataset are, frankly, clear.
It may seem obvious at first glance, as if scientists don't even need to tell us that experiencing an orgasm is more pleasant than being sick with the flu.
But there are also results that weren't so obvious before.
There is a profound clarity in the data on happiness.
Sometimes big data reveals shocking twists, but other times it tells us that “there is no secret.”
And happiness is precisely the latter.
The crucial thing to keep in mind is that most people are not very good at doing things that clearly make them happy.
Modern people easily fall into the trap of "data not making us happy"—the trap of "making us unhappy."
What if we condensed all the lessons from modern big data happiness research?
Data-Driven Life Solutions
Simply put, scientific and innovative research on happiness shows that happiness isn't as complicated as we think.
There are very simple facts that make people happy, wisdom that has existed for thousands of years.
It's just that modern society tricks us into doing many things that won't make us happy.
The point is, if you're not happy, you need to examine whether you're doing enough to make yourself happy!
Big data provides evidence that the way we think the world works is different from the way the world actually works.
Data sometimes provides insights that are completely counterintuitive, and sometimes counterintuitive to conventional wisdom.
Using data appropriately can help us understand ourselves better and live better lives.
If you have data about how the world really works, so you can filter out the lies of people and the lies of the media, you are prepared to make better decisions.
The big data revolution offers us new alternatives to listening to our own voices.
In the early 21st century, the role of statistical analysis in baseball began to grow rapidly.
The emergence of so-called sabermetrics (baseball statistical analysis techniques).
The new principles introduced to the public through the book and film "Moneyball" have also brought about changes in many other areas, based on the powerful premise that "data is useful in correcting our biases."
For example, most cutting-edge companies in Silicon Valley operate based on the 'Moneyball' principle.
Google, for example, is known for placing firm trust in the power of data above all else when making important decisions.
Medallion Fund, which trades stocks solely based on data patterns, has effectively surpassed the "efficient market hypothesis" by generating returns significantly higher than the S&P 500 every year since its inception.
So, can important decisions in everyday life be made as data-driven as those in sports or IT startups? the author asks.
"Are we more like the 2002 Athletics, or like other baseball teams from that year? Are we more like Google, or like a corner store? Are we more like Renaissance Technologies, or like a traditional asset manager?"
I was watching a baseball game and I became curious.
What if we took a data-driven approach to making important life decisions? What if we ran our personal lives the way Billy Beane ran the Oakland Athletics? Approaching life in that way is becoming increasingly easier.
In my previous book, Everybody Lies, I explored how the new data available through the Internet is transforming our understanding of society and the human mind.
The statistical revolution in baseball came first thanks to data demanded and collected by fans obsessed with baseball statistics.
Now, a 'Lifeball' revolution, not just a 'Moneyball' revolution, is possible.
Thanks to all the data our smartphones and computers collect.
_In the preface
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, an economist and former Google data scientist, became a New York Times bestselling author in 2017 with his first book, Everybody Lies.
In this follow-up book, released five years after Everybody Lies, he focuses on how often we get things wrong when making crucial decisions for a better life.
“Seth is the ultimate data storyteller!” —Steven Levitt, author of Freakonomics
Can't we learn from the lives of humanity, rather than from the advice or intuition of a few people? Here's a book full of hints.
This is a life-size version of Moneyball, which derived the best winning strategy through efficient resource allocation from sabermetrics, which is full of statistics on baseball players.
Plus, it's incredibly fun.
(Omitted) The answer is in this book.
I'm grateful to the author for demonstrating that we can find "data-driven solutions to life" from the vast accumulation of human data, and I recommend this book to anyone who wants to learn the secret.
_Mind Minor Song Gil-young, in 'Recommendation'
Relationships, success, money, happiness… Leave the keys to success to data.
How can we make the countless decisions that shape our lives? Reliable answers lie hidden in today's massive datasets.
* Who should I marry?
* What predicts a happy relationship?
* How can I become a good parent?
* What are my chances of becoming a celebrity?
* Who are the truly hidden rich people?
* How can I become that rich?
* Am I too old to start a business now?
* Why are some people exceptionally lucky?
* How can I change my appearance to look the best?
* What can people do to become happy?
Even in the 20th century, precise and systematic data on the question, "What makes people happy?" was not available.
At best, the research was conducted with only a few dozen data measurements.
But now, using smartphones, we can build an unprecedentedly large dataset of happiness.
And some of the results we get here are provocative, challenging our expectations and common sense.
Over the past decade, scholars have mined massive datasets to develop novel approaches to life's biggest self-improvement challenges.
Data from hundreds of thousands of dating site accounts reveals some surprising strategies for making dates happen.
Data from hundreds of millions of tax records reveals which neighborhoods are best for raising children.
Data tracking the careers of millions of people has uncovered the secrets of those who rise to the top.
It tells us when the best time is to start a business, and how happy we actually are when we skip our friend's birthday party and spend the evening binge-watching Netflix on the couch.
He tells us about the most lucrative yet boring careers, and reminds us that old dating advice that feels like a joke because you've heard it so many times is actually data-backed truth.
Based on data
Break the stereotypes and increase your chances of success.
We think we know how to live better lives, but the data tells us otherwise! Hard facts and figures often clash with our instincts.
And it's the numbers that teach us the laws of life that actually work.
Inspired by an idea that occurred to me while watching a baseball game, the author has spent the past four years meeting countless researchers and delving into research papers to uncover novel and compelling stories woven into the latest big data research and numbers.
The author's own research and interpretation are also included, and the book unfolds in the hope that everyone who reads this book will become the 'Billy Beane' of their own life in various areas such as marriage, parenting, sports, finance, business management, luck, appearance, and happiness.
The story begins with the question, “Who should I marry? Can an algorithm help me decide ‘who to marry’?” (Chapter 1).
Drawing on massive data gleaned from dating apps, this book offers sobering and realistic wisdom on the question, "Is relationship happiness predictable?"
Next, for the countless parents who are struggling to find ways to become better parents, we provide new insights into what makes a good parent, drawing on recent datasets—specifically, the tax records of hundreds of millions of Americans (Chapter 2).
He then goes a step further and presents (with the author's autobiographical humor) the latest data for those hoping to help their children succeed in sports (Chapter 3).
Chapters 4 through 7 mainly discuss how to achieve professional success.
For example, who are the real hidden rich in the US? (Chapter 4) Can we honestly say what kind of people they are? (Chapter 4) Four economists use de-identified data from the IRS on all US taxpayers to reveal who the hidden rich in the US (the top 0.1 percent of earners) are.
And the truly rich weren't the people we usually expect.
This groundbreaking study, Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century, tells the story not of a handful of famous Silicon Valley billionaires, but of more than 140,000 wealthy people who earn more than $1.58 million a year.
The typical wealthy American, researchers found, was the owner of a local business, such as a car dealer or a liquor wholesaler.
Next, what factors determine who succeeds? Recently, data scientists have amassed a dataset on the world of entrepreneurs and discovered unexpected variables that predict success.
Is entrepreneurship really a field where young, energetic people have a higher chance of success? Chapter 5 dispels some preconceptions about entrepreneurial success and introduces a credible formula, derived from data.
But to be honest, luck also plays a big role in success.
Chapter 6 explores how luck works through big data, including sales figures from hundreds of thousands of artists.
Could we, too, become lucky by leveraging insights gleaned from data? Furthermore, could we leverage new lessons learned from machine learning and personal data sets to discover ways to best represent ourselves? (Chapter 7) Chapters 8 and 9 delve deeper into what makes people happy or unhappy.
Previous, small-scale studies have suggested that we humans have a poor grasp of what makes us happy, and our inherent cognitive biases have played a role.
The results of the 'Maffinis Project' research using a massive happiness dataset are, frankly, clear.
It may seem obvious at first glance, as if scientists don't even need to tell us that experiencing an orgasm is more pleasant than being sick with the flu.
But there are also results that weren't so obvious before.
There is a profound clarity in the data on happiness.
Sometimes big data reveals shocking twists, but other times it tells us that “there is no secret.”
And happiness is precisely the latter.
The crucial thing to keep in mind is that most people are not very good at doing things that clearly make them happy.
Modern people easily fall into the trap of "data not making us happy"—the trap of "making us unhappy."
What if we condensed all the lessons from modern big data happiness research?
Data-Driven Life Solutions
Simply put, scientific and innovative research on happiness shows that happiness isn't as complicated as we think.
There are very simple facts that make people happy, wisdom that has existed for thousands of years.
It's just that modern society tricks us into doing many things that won't make us happy.
The point is, if you're not happy, you need to examine whether you're doing enough to make yourself happy!
Big data provides evidence that the way we think the world works is different from the way the world actually works.
Data sometimes provides insights that are completely counterintuitive, and sometimes counterintuitive to conventional wisdom.
Using data appropriately can help us understand ourselves better and live better lives.
If you have data about how the world really works, so you can filter out the lies of people and the lies of the media, you are prepared to make better decisions.
GOODS SPECIFICS
- Publication date: October 5, 2022
- Page count, weight, size: 364 pages | 546g | 148*215*23mm
- ISBN13: 9791140701353
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