What does the US presidential election result mean for the future of the global economy?
How will the Fed's interest rate pivot unfold?

Dr. Kwak Soo-jong's flagship economic outlook for South Korea, first published in 2023 to rave reviews and critical acclaim, returns in the second half of 2025, a crucial time for interest rate pivoting and the US presidential election.
Renowned economist Dr. Kwak Soo-jong has fully updated the information in his previous work, published in November 2023, to reflect 100% of the latest global economic indicators and data. Through economic outlooks assessed by leading global institutions and analyses of the economic environments of major countries, he forecasts the mid- to long-term future of the global economy and further suggests a sustainable growth strategy for the Korean economy, which is facing a crisis.
If you want to protect your valuable assets, engage in economic activities, or run a business, you should have a mid- to long-term economic forecast of at least five years.
This is because, in this new normal era where confusion and uncertainty have become the norm, short-sighted predictions alone are no longer sufficient.
The ability to predict the future and read the direction of money is the decisive difference between the rich and the poor.
For a smart economic lifestyle and asset management, understanding the present and future of the complexly intertwined global economy is essential.
Especially in these uncertain times, a mid- to long-term economic outlook that looks ahead five years or so is even more necessary.
This one book will provide insight into the upcoming changes in the global economic structure and the new direction of wealth.


This book was designed to accurately predict the Korean and Chinese economies for up to five years, given that the U.S. economy still leads the global economy.
The global economy in the new normal era, where chaos has become the norm, is characterized by numerous macro and micro variables, and this book's unique feature and strength is its scenario-based approach.
The publication of this book is particularly significant given the upcoming Fed interest rate pivot, which is scheduled to begin in September 2024, and the US presidential election in November.
If former President Trump defeats Harris and is re-elected as President of the United States, there is great concern about what the political economy will look like over the next five years.
"What will the future of the global economy look like following the results of the US presidential election in November 2024?" "How will the US Federal Reserve's interest rate pivot, beginning in September 2024, unfold?" "How will China's shadow banking detonator unfold?" "What are the prospects and future path for the Korean economy, which has lost its driving force for innovation?" This book will provide clear answers to these questions.
Furthermore, this economic outlook, written in an accessible manner for readers of all levels, will provide readers with the insight to forecast and respond to the global economy over the next five years.

The United States needs a new "increase in wealth," but it should also be noted that many national economies are no longer willing to tolerate the current method of neo-financial capitalism and leverage expansion to achieve this "increase in wealth."
The United States is facing a moment when it absolutely needs something to compensate for the decline in consumption levels.
Britain's 'Brexit' is a failed policy in that respect.
The United States is taking very seriously the assessment that 'Britain's hegemony in the European economy is now nothing more than a shadow cast by the setting sun.'
This is also one of the reasons why concerns about former President Trump's alliance policy and the assumption that his campaign slogan of "Make America Great Again" through protectionist trade policies do not have much destructive power, as will be mentioned later.

--- From "Macro/Micro Questions Related to Changes in the New Five Years"

Although the US-China relationship is not characterized by ideological confrontation like the relationship between the former Soviet Union and the United States, a new geopolitical situation has unfortunately emerged in recent years.
The United States and China coexist in a multipolar world where they are deeply suspicious of each other's worldviews and are hostile to each other.
At the same time, both countries recognize that they cannot overpower each other, and this allows them to avoid direct military conflict while expanding their rivalry into other areas, leading us to call this geopolitical situation a "new Cold War."
Above all, neither China's economic efforts nor its diplomatic achievements should be viewed as detrimental to American interests.
Many global challenges, such as the Russo-Ukrainian war, nuclear proliferation, climate change, and debt relief, require persuading and emphasizing that China must be part of the solution.
As a member of the international community, we must emphasize the role of the national economy in building national wealth through the global economic system, recognizing that it is undesirable for a country's economic benefits to be based on the economic costs of other countries.

--- From "Should the World Prepare for a New Cold War Between the US and China?"

The South China Sea region continues to be unstable due to the conflict between the US and China. It is clear that the East Sea region could also experience similar developments as the South China Sea. Furthermore, if China's maritime influence, which was previously blocked, were to extend to the East Sea region, it would be difficult to guarantee stability in Russia's Primorsky Krai region.
Russia cannot trust China, and it is enough to conclude that 'China could seize Russia's eastern territories at any time through its naval forces on the east coast.'
Nonetheless, as pressure on North Korea and China intensifies within the ROK-US-Japan alliance, the imperative for China to join the North Korea-China-Russia system may become even stronger.
If China's acquisition of maritime rights in the East Sea becomes a reality, the security landscape in Northeast Asia, including the East Sea, will fundamentally change, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia will be greatly threatened.
The United States' containment and pressure to curb China's advance and expansion will intensify, and the possibility of conflict due to China's expansion of maritime power will increase.

--- From "The Geopolitical Value of the Korean Peninsula Requires Advanced Strategy"

Harris appears poised to effectively defend the Biden administration's economic policies to American voters.
This is the core issue that Republicans and Trump blame the Democratic administration for rising inflation since the last pandemic.
But Bidenomics, despite rescuing the United States from the worst economic slowdown since the Great Depression and driving record job growth, has struggled to demonstrate that it is actually delivering a better life for Americans.
During the 2020 presidential campaign, Harris proposed a refundable tax credit of up to $6,000 per couple per year to help middle- and working-class families make ends meet.
The bill, dubbed the LIFT the Middle Class Act, would provide taxpayers with up to $500 a month to help families avoid having to resort to high-interest emergency loans.

--- From "The U.S. presidential election will be decided by the direction of middle-class voters"

What are the key factors in addressing the global economic outlook beyond 2024? Four endogenous economic variables can be identified:
First, the pace of U.S. economic growth; second, the possibility of a shift in the U.S. consumer price, unemployment, and high-interest rate regime; third, the extent of new trade friction between the U.S. and China after the presidential election and its potential spillover effects on the global economy; and fourth, the stability of the supply chain and prices of oil and international raw materials.
And as economic exogenous variables, we can cite geopolitical factors such as the progress of the Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas War.
The global economy is expected to post its worst economic growth in 30 years following the pandemic.
Above all, it appears that it will take considerable time and money to restore the trust in the "network" of the global economy before the pandemic, namely the global supply chain and value chain.
The future global economy could be a waste of opportunity if there is no new direction.

--- From "World Economic Outlook 2025-2029"

Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, in her "Sahm ​​rule," considers an economy in recession when the three-month average of the unemployment rate rises by more than 0.5 percentage points above the lowest three-month average over the previous year.
The unemployment rate averaged 4.13% over the past three months, which is 0.53 percentage points higher than the three-month average low of 3.6% over the past year.
However, this is only a statistical rule, and it is difficult to say that something will definitely happen like an economic rule.
The important thing is to be able to figure out what the plunge in the US stock market on August 2, 2024 really means.
First, the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, as the indicators show.
This is an unavoidable preemptive signal, as there is a 100% chance that an economic slowdown will occur one year after the phenomenon of the short-term and long-term interest rate inversion appears.
Second, the strong demands made by Wall Street and the public on the Federal Reserve have been strengthened.
That is, lower the interest rate by 0.5 percentage points.

--- From "US Economic Outlook 2025-2029"

China needs a transparent accounting to remove threats to its future.
Chinese local governments have accumulated up to $11 trillion in off-the-books debt to build industrial parks, resorts, transportation systems, and housing projects, many of which have failed.
The Chinese Communist Party was optimistic about the future of its planned industrial cities in early 2019.
The economy was booming, new industrial districts were springing up, and an elevated light rail system was taking shape.
But no one mentioned the hidden trump card.
The Chinese government must address the fact that countless Chinese cities have accumulated trillions of dollars in undisclosed debt disguised as economic development projects to achieve their goals, and that this opaque funding has served as the yeast that has made China the envy of the world.

--- From "China's Economic Outlook 2025-2029"

A&D companies need to expand their strategies beyond compensation to accommodate the changing needs of their workforce.
The average annual salary in the U.S. A&D industry is $108,900, which is about 55% higher than the national average.
Nonetheless, many Gen Z employees are pursuing notable careers with far-reaching impact.
These companies attract talent through mission-focused marketing campaigns and engage in more strategic hiring practices to ensure that employees' values ​​align with the company's.
So how do we retain the talent currently employed? Despite a significant number of new hires, there were still 604,000 vacancies in the manufacturing industry as of August 2023.
Additionally, voluntary retirements accounted for approximately 68% of total turnover.
The A&D industry has high standards and expectations for its employees, requiring specific training requirements and security clearances.
This also means there is a need to focus on retaining talent, especially as the number of retirees increases.

--- From "Aerospace and Defense: Four Trends in the A&D Industry"

Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the basic fiscal and monetary policies will not differ significantly.
In other words, it seems inevitable that the deficit will continue to run, as interest rate cuts in monetary policy and fiscal policy cannot be expected to stimulate the U.S. economy.
In particular, considering that the Trump administration also pursued a big government, unlike the Reagan administration, which once advocated for a small government, the size of the U.S. government's fiscal deficit relative to GDP is likely to exceed 130%, assuming that subsidy policies such as the Chip Incentives for Inflation (CHIPS) Act, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and climate and environment policies will be maintained.
In Scenarios 1 through 8, it is difficult to expect fundamental policy changes due to the inevitability of interest rate cuts and fiscal deficits in each of the Harris and Trump administrations.
However, Trump is expected to differ in his pro-business sentiment, his ability to demand cost sharing from allies, and his relatively strong drive against protectionist policies.
The average annual U.S. GDP growth rate for each scenario from 2025 to 2029 is projected to be in the low 2% range.
The Chinese economy is expected to implement a variety of policies over the next one to two years, including monetary tightening and fiscal expansion, aimed at curbing domestic real estate development, shadow banking, and LGFV insolvency.
This macroeconomic policy direction is expected to continue for five consecutive years until 2029.

--- From "Korean Economic Scenarios 1-12 for 2025-2029"