preface

Chapter 1: Economic Magnifying Glass
· 2026 New Trend: 'RECALIBRATE'
Slowing down and balancing the years of experience and the ability to ask good questions are capital
· Korean economy
Entering a chronic low-growth phase, even a 1% growth rate is a challenge.
· World economy
Crisis and opportunity coexist… Low growth remains unavoidable, tariff war shock remains… US-China conflict remains a variable

Chapter 2: Top 10 Issues of 2026
· After the conclusion of Korea-US tariff negotiations
Tariffs "rules set"... Korean automakers breathe a sigh of relief, but protectionism continues with "Super Trump" trade.
· Inter-Korean relations
Kim Jong-un's rise to prominence after attending China's military parade, Trump's resolve 'vigorously'... US-North Korea summit?
Will the Chinese economy regain strength amid the US-China conflict?
Potential overcomes pessimism... Greater China stock market revival, policy and economic cycles usher in a second bull market.
Local elections
Local elections are essentially a midterm evaluation of the government. The administration is evaluated and conservatives are tested.
· KOSPI index exceeds 4000 and reaches 5000
The KOSPI is on the verge of reaching 5,000, but there are prerequisites.
Will Seoul apartment prices continue to soar?
Even if real estate regulations continue, the "one-pole system" won't be easily broken.
· K-Culture
Short-form dramas and super IPs... Beyond platform dependency, new engine platforms are evolving into "global" platforms.
· Manufacturing industry hollowing out
The Exodus of Korean Manufacturing: The End of "Made in Korea"
· AI bubble theory
The AI ​​bubble theory repeats itself every year: overheating vs. the train is on its way.
· Korean-style stablecoins and digital assets
NFTs in 2021, the metaverse in 2022, and stablecoins in 2026.

Chapter 3: The Korean Economy in Indicators
· Consumption
The dark tunnel is over. Stretching amidst mixed feelings of anticipation and concern.
· price
Even interest rate cuts failed to halt the economic slowdown, with the overall growth rate likely to remain below 2% in 2026.
· invest
Investor sentiment is like a "freezer," while AI semiconductors are like a "melting pot."
· Domestic interest rates
Interest rates are falling… US investment funds are a key variable, and market interest rates are expected to rise again when the economy recovers.
· Won exchange rate
"High-low, mid-high, low-low"... The won's strength is strengthening, sparking the US-China conflict... Korea is in a sandwich.
· Balance of payments
We survived on semiconductors... but high tariffs are the 'calm before the storm.'
· Employment
The service industry is experiencing a 'warmth' and the manufacturing industry is experiencing a 'cold wave'. It's clear on the outside, but there's a typhoon inside...
· Labor-management relations
Guidance on labor-management relations in turmoil ahead of the implementation of the Yellow Envelope Law
· Household debt and fiscal balance
Household debt has increased so much that the debate over fiscal soundness is heating up.
· Local economy
Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, fueled by the power of the metropolitan area, are laying the groundwork for the economies of Seoul, Busan, and Ulsan.
· Global Trade (FTA)
Is there no change in the strategy for expanding cooperation partners during the transition period to solidify the substance of FTA policy?

Chapter 4 Where is the world economy headed?
· International exchange rates
Trump's inflationary pressures continue to fuel extreme volatility.
· International interest rates
International interest rates are said to be in a "stabilization phase," but the US and Europe are lowering them, while Japan is trying to raise them.
· USA
Stagflation is more severe than expected, and there's no answer when the AI ​​bubble bursts or the stock market slumps.
· china
A new challenge of "qualitative transformation" after a transitional period: an "all-round drive" ahead of the centennial of the founding of the military.
· japan
Japan's escape from deflation becomes clear, with consumption, exports, and facility investment rebounding.
· European Union
Recovery is showing signs of progress, but the economic axis shifts from manufacturing to tourism services, with mixed fortunes across countries.
India
Unfazed by Trump's tariffs, the country achieved 6% growth driven by domestic demand, reform, and manufacturing.
· brazil
Tax reform: Weighing both growth and trust, and interest rate cuts are key to price stability.
· Russia and Eastern Europe
Russia's cooling economy...Eastern Europe on the cusp of a long-term slowdown, with dramatic changes...Major economies posting 2.5% growth.
Southeast Asia
Domestic demand and price stability are welcome, but concerns about reciprocal tariffs and the Myanmar civil war are concerning.
· Middle East and Central Asia
The Middle East, with its mixed fortunes and sorrows, is experiencing war and oil price turmoil. Central Asia is opening new paths with new cities and ICT.
· Central and South America
Mexico's gradual recovery amid tariff risks, desperate for USMCA renegotiation
· Oceania
Australia's fundamentals are strong, but the real estate market is a fuse. New Zealand's population exodus will lead to hardship in 2026.
· Africa
The expiry of US patent tariffs is a "bad omen" for private investment and online shopping.

Chapter 5 Raw Material Prices
· Crude oil
Despite increased supply, demand continues to decline, with prices fluctuating between $50 and $65 per barrel.
· Agricultural products
Soaring stagflation 'stabilizes downward' If 'La Niña' occurs in the Southern Hemisphere...
· gold
Gold, the chaotic asset market of the dwarf world, close the door of confusion.
· Steel
China's prices are plummeting, while the US is soaring, trapped in an inescapable "overcapacity trap."
· Non-ferrous metals
Despite the easing monetary policy, copper and nickel are experiencing supply shortages due to a "temperature gap" across items.
· Rare metals
China has changed the supply-demand market. Rising prices are due to "Wang Xibang's" mindset.

Chapter 6 What Happens to the Asset Market?
1.
stock market
Stock Issue ① KOSPI Leading Stocks
The bullish momentum stems from the revival of the repressed secondary battery value chain, driven by performance, supply chain, and policy.
Stock Issue ② Nasdaq Leading Stocks
The Nasdaq's undefeated streak continues into 2026, with AI-themed products spreading across industries.
Stock Issue ③ ETF
The $18 Trillion ETF Market: The Themes Are Splitting. Trump's Second Term Is in Fluctuations: Precision Investing Is the Solution.
Stock Issue ④ IPO Market Observation Points
Introducing 'healthcare' BDCs will accelerate growth, even as interest rates decline.
Stock Issue ⑤ Virtual Assets
A Big Blur Between Virtual and Traditional Assets: Stablecoins, a Digital Goldmine

2.
real estate market
Real Estate Issue ① Reconstruction
Despite the housing shortage, Gangnam redevelopment subscriptions are booming.
Real Estate Issue ② Redevelopment
Seoul's plan to increase the floor area ratio for redevelopment in the Seongsu Strategic Redevelopment Zone and Noryangjin New Town is drawing attention.
Real Estate Issue ③ New Town
The government is also focusing on deregulation for the first phase of new city reconstruction in Bundang and Ilsan.
Real Estate Issue ④ Income-generating real estate
Small buildings attract attention amid expectations of officetels avoiding loan regulations, but commercial properties face a cold front.
Real Estate Issue ⑤ Jeonse
Seoul metropolitan area jeonse prices are expected to rise by around 5%, with monthly rents on the rise due to a decrease in housing supply.

Appendix: Where to Invest
1.
stock
① IT/electronic communications
Expanding AI investment in areas such as cloud computing and computing, and transforming the IT portfolio to focus on premium products.
② Finance
Investment attractiveness: Securities → Banks → Insurance, re-evaluated through advanced capital market policies.
③ Chemicals, oil refining, and energy
Domestic refining performance improves amid a favorable environment in which international oil prices are within the $60-$70 per barrel range.
④ Automobiles/Transportation
The unwavering hybrid trend continues, and aviation is recovering from the shock of the Muan accident.
⑤ Construction and heavy industry
A breakthrough in nuclear power plants: Clear weather expected by 2030
⑥ Education and Culture
Offline academy powerhouses worth keeping an eye on are the complete lineup, and the key to games is the new releases.
⑦ Consumer goods
Daiso and Musinsa vs. Premium Department Stores: The 2026 Distribution Market Driven by "Extreme Consumption"
⑧ Pharmaceuticals and Bio
A string of "big deals" has opened up a "lifeline" for technology transfers. China's bio sanctions and interest rate cuts are a welcome boost.
⑨ Small and medium-sized stocks
"Korean-American aunts" are drawing attention for their smart investment and the spread of personalized AI.

2.
real estate
① Apartment
Apgujeong and Daechi, the "undefeated" new construction areas, are being redeveloped, while Seongsu, Yeouido, and Mokdong are the "next affluent neighborhoods."
② Commercial building
Even with lower rents, commercial properties remain empty. Location, industry, and development determine success or failure.
③ Commercial real estate
Concerns over increased office supply are unfounded, with the CBD being reorganized into a financial cluster.
④ Land
Gangnam District, the District with the Highest Land Price Rise, Intensifies the Widening Polarization Between the Metropolitan Area and the Provinces
⑤ Auction
A flood of unprecedented auction properties is pouring in, making it worth targeting areas with a surge in development potential.

2026: Welcome an economy of reconstruction, not recovery.

“Is growth over?”
Now is the time to ask for directions.
The economy of 2026 stands at a turning point that is completely different from previous years.
The post-pandemic world has yet to fully emerge from the tunnel of uncertainty.
High interest rates and inflation have become the norm, asset polarization has deepened, and artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly replacing human labor.
The core of industry is being shaken, and supply chains are being reorganized according to geopolitical variables.
In an era where complex crises are simultaneously looming, what we must grasp is not a return to the past, but rather a strategic restructuring and setting a direction for the future.

《The Great Prediction 2026》 addresses these contemporary issues head-on.
In an era where the word "recovery" no longer holds true, the key question is how to redesign the existing order.
This book is an economic strategy guide that provides the closest answer to that question.

The keyword is 'RECALIBRATE'

The key word presented in this year's "Grand Forecast 2026" is RECALIBRATE.
2026 highlights the need for fine-tuning not only the economic order but also mindsets, policies, and corporate strategies.
The era of Super Trump, resurfacing with the possibility of former President Trump's return; reglobalization centered on security, technology, and values; the power of inquiry that creates gaps in the AI ​​era; virtual assets incorporated into the institutional system; and an era in which the immaterial value of "trust" becomes a core asset. These changes are analyzed in "The Great Prediction 2026."

This book provides a three-dimensional interpretation of the economic environment in 2026, focusing on six key issues.
First, "rebalancing," presented as this year's keyword, signifies that we can no longer simply wait for recovery or a rebound at a time when the axes of all industries and finance are shaking.
In particular, supply chain restructuring shakes the very foundations of industrial structure, and is addressed not simply as a supply and demand issue but as a shift in the global trade order.
At the same time, the institutionalization of virtual assets redefines the boundaries of finance and raises fundamental questions about the foundation of trust in the existing monetary system.

The impact of technological advancements is also sharply analyzed throughout the book.
The popularization of generative AI has the duality of being a tool to increase individual productivity, but also paralyzing human thinking ability.
The book emphasizes that we are entering an era where AI will go beyond simply replacing jobs, and where the ability to question and think will itself become the criteria for the gap.
So, he says that the new competitive edge is not simply a question of whether or not to introduce technology, but rather what questions can be asked.

What's interesting these days is that the spread of AI technology is even outsourcing human thinking skills.
In an era where you can get results by simply entering commands, those who don't think will eventually lose their jobs to AI.
《Grand Forecast 2026》 provides insights that cross the boundaries of technology, society, policy, and finance, and goes beyond simply listing forecasts to present criteria for judgment.

Another noteworthy trend is the rise of ‘trust.’
In an era where hacking and data breaches are commonplace, trust in the digital space is being redefined as a foundation for economic activity, transcending the traditional intangible asset.
《Grand Prediction 2026》 calls this the "Trust Economy," and predicts that in the future economic order, "transparency" and "trust" will play a role as valuable as currency.

2026: An Economic Compass to Stay on Track

This book provides an in-depth analysis of key economic issues in each chapter.
Based on expert insights and actual data, it comprehensively covers not only stock and real estate investment strategies, but also the macroeconomy, including consumer trends, price movements, employment structure, and international affairs.
The appendix at the end of the book presents outlooks for each industry and asset class to watch for in 2026, providing readers with practical strategies they can immediately implement.

These days, it is said that predictions are difficult.
But that doesn't mean we can just wait.
The higher the uncertainty, the more grounded judgment is needed, not vague optimism.
《The Great Forecast 2026》 guides individuals and businesses alike to read the trends amidst scattered variables and "recalibrate" their own future strategies.
This is a must-read book, a compass that you must read now to avoid losing your way.