{"product_id":"140376","title":"How Nations Collapse ","description":"\u003ccenter\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:center\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/tmgdisk01.cafe24.com\/images\/vs\/4172\/sv\/WQtVORFWzB6yEA7xAH3WCW.png?v=1764954962\" style=\"max-width:100%;max-height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\u003ccenter\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:95%\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:center;font-size:30px;font-weight:bolder;line-height:1.6em\"\u003e How Nations Collapse \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px;border-bottom-style:dotted;border-color:;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable align=\"center\" width=\"100%\"\u003e\u003ctbody style=\"border:0px\"\u003e\n\n\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"center\" style=\"line-height:1.2em;text-align:center;font-size:18px;color:black;font-weight:bold;padding-bottom:20px;\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\n\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"text-align:center\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/image.yes24.com\/goods\/143345709\/XL\" style=\"max-width:100%;height:auto\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/tbody\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:95%;{split_style6}padding-top:20px;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e Description \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;word-break:break-all;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6em;\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eBook Introduction\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e \u003cb\u003eJared Diamond and Angus Deaton recommend\u003cbr\u003e A scientific analysis of political integration and disintegration!\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Why do all nations and societies repeatedly suffer from political instability? Many societies rise and fall, experiencing civil wars, revolutions, or other periods of profound turmoil, while only a few emerge from chaos smoothly and without major upheaval.\u003cbr\u003e A period of stability and peace lasts no more than 100 years, or at most 200 years. \u003cbr\u003ePeter Turchin has compiled a database of hundreds of crisis cases from every continent around the world and applied a methodology that has been successful in complexity theory to develop his argument on why societies repeatedly fall into crisis (this is called historical dynamics).\u003cbr\u003e According to him, four structural factors are driving the crisis.\u003cbr\u003e These factors include elite overproduction, mass impoverishment, weakening of state finances and legitimacy, and geopolitical factors.\u003cbr\u003e The most important driving factor among these is elite overproduction, which manifests itself in competition and conflict within the elite and in the discontent of those who fail to enter the elite.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eAlong with this, it attempts to understand why some crises lead to horrific outcomes (such as the death of countless people, the annihilation or downfall of the elite or ruling class), while others are relatively smooth. What mistakes did the leaders and citizens make in the former cases? What did they do right in the latter? With even the legitimacy of the courts, the ultimate social consensus, weakened, can Korean society today emerge from its crisis? I hope this book will offer at least a glimpse of the answer.\u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e You can preview some of the book's contents.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cspan\u003ePreview\u003c\/span\u003e\n\n\u003c\/li\u003e\u003c\/ul\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eindex\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e introduction\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePart 1.\u003cbr\u003e Historical dynamics of power\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 1.\u003cbr\u003e Elites, Elite Overproduction, the Road to Crisis\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 2.\u003cbr\u003e One Step Back: Lessons from History\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePart 2.\u003cbr\u003e Factors driving instability\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 3.\u003cbr\u003e “Farmers are disgusting.”\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 4.\u003cbr\u003e Revolutionary Army\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 5.\u003cbr\u003e ruling class\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 6. \u003cbr\u003eWhy is America a plutocracy?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePart 3.\u003cbr\u003e Crisis and its aftermath\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 7.\u003cbr\u003e The collapse of the state\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 8.\u003cbr\u003e Histories of the Near Future\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 9.\u003cbr\u003e The Wealth Pump and the Future of Democracy\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Acknowledgements\u003cbr\u003e supplement\u003cbr\u003e A1.\u003cbr\u003e New historical science\u003cbr\u003e A2.\u003cbr\u003e Historical Macroscope\u003cbr\u003e A3.\u003cbr\u003e Structural dynamics approach\u003cbr\u003e main\u003cbr\u003e References\u003cbr\u003e Search\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eDetailed image\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/image.yes24.com\/momo\/TopCate5180\/MidCate003\/517923055.jpg\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Detailed Image 1\"\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003eInto the book\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e Today, too many 'elite aspirants' are competing for a limited number of positions in the upper echelons of politics and economics.\u003cbr\u003e In our model, we call this condition elite overproduction.\u003cbr\u003e The impoverishment of the masses, the overproduction of the elite, and the resulting conflict within the elite are increasingly undermining our civic cohesion.\u003cbr\u003e If this sense of national cooperation disappears, the country will rot from within in an instant. \u003cbr\u003eThe growing vulnerability of society is manifested in the erosion of trust in state institutions and the disintegration of the social norms that govern public discourse—and the functioning of democratic institutions.\u003cbr\u003e --- From the \"Introduction\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Who are the elites? … The elites are simply those with more social power (power holders).\u003cbr\u003e …if you're an American and your net worth falls in the $1-$2 million range, you're roughly in the top 10 percent… Most people in this category aren't particularly powerful in the sense that they have a lot of people around them to give them orders.\u003cbr\u003e But millions of dollars in wealth (and the higher incomes that often go with it) give this 10 percent a lot of control—power—over their lives.\u003cbr\u003e …they are definitely out of ‘instability’.\u003cbr\u003e --- From \"Chapter 1 Elites, Elite Overproduction, and the Road to Crisis\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eWhile revolutions occurred in succession in France (1789, 1830, 1848…), England entered a ‘revolutionary situation’ in 1830, but somehow avoided national collapse.\u003cbr\u003e Why this happened is a very interesting topic.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- From \"Chapter 2: One Step Back: Lessons from History\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A look at history (and the 'crisis database') reveals that the highly educated precariat (or, in the terminology of historical dynamics, the frustrated elite aspirants) is the class most dangerous to social stability.\u003cbr\u003e The overproduction of young people with advanced degrees has been a key factor driving social upheaval from the revolutions of 1848 to the Arab Spring of 2011.\u003cbr\u003e The Communist Manifesto declares, “The proletariat has nothing to lose but its chains.”\u003cbr\u003e But the old Marx was proven wrong.\u003cbr\u003e The impoverished proletariat is not the agent that can bring about a successful revolution. \u003cbr\u003eThe truly dangerous revolutionaries are frustrated elite wannabes who, thanks to their privilege, education, and connections, can wield considerable influence.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e As of 2022, we are clearly transitioning from a pre-crisis phase, where the nation [the United States] struggled to maintain control of the ideological landscape in the face of multiple anti-elite challengers, to a next phase, where numerous competitors are vying for dominance.\u003cbr\u003e Politicians who still cling to the old-establishment values ​​of moderation and cooperation among elites are retiring or losing elections to challengers with more extreme views.\u003cbr\u003e --- From \"Chapter 4 Revolutionary Army\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Excluding Black Americans from the agreement was a tactical choice by the FDR administration. \u003cbr\u003eSouthern votes were needed to push legislation through in the face of resistance from conservative corporate elites (the National Association of Manufacturers), who were adamant that no concessions should be made to the working class.\u003cbr\u003e Looking back, it seems that this decision to abandon black workers was the reason John F.\u003cbr\u003e The next generation of leaders, such as Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson, could usher in a new era of civil rights movement.\u003cbr\u003e This era finally swept away the apartheid state that Southern elites had established in the aftermath of the Civil War and the failure of Reconstruction.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e When we examine each case of state collapse, we find that in every case the overwhelming majority of the pre-crisis elite—whether members of the slave regime before the Civil War, the aristocracy of the French Ancien Régime, or the Russian intelligentsia around 1900—did not even notice the catastrophe that was about to engulf them. \u003cbr\u003eThey themselves shook the foundations of the nation and were shocked when the nation collapsed.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- From Chapter 6, “Why is America a Plutocracy?”\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e What is the main lesson we should draw from this analysis of past cases of state collapse? Political authority governing complex human societies is far more fragile than a superficial glance would suggest.\u003cbr\u003e State collapse, the sudden disintegration of the power networks that govern a society, occurs frequently throughout history and in the modern world.\u003cbr\u003e Ruling classes are often defeated (and sometimes annihilated) by overwhelming forces in war or battle.\u003cbr\u003e …but the most frequent cause of state collapse (rather than the result of external invasion) is the implosion of the ruling network. \u003cbr\u003e…all complex societies are vulnerable to the disintegrating force of elite overproduction, and this is why they all experience periodic social disintegration.\u003cbr\u003e The main problem is that plutocrats, acting in their own self-interest, tend to create institutional systems that favor the operation of the wealth pump.\u003cbr\u003e The wealth pump increases, on the one hand, the impoverishment of the masses, and, on the other, elite overproduction (by creating more wealthy plutocrats).\u003cbr\u003e In other words, the wealth pump is considered one of the most destabilizing social mechanisms known to mankind.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- From \"Chapter 7: The Collapse of the Nation\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e If these extremists are a minority compared to the rest of the population, they do not pose a serious threat to the stability of the regime.\u003cbr\u003e Because they are easily isolated and subdued by the police. \u003cbr\u003eBut when they become a majority, they can begin to coalesce into extremist organizations and pose a clear challenge to the ruling class.\u003cbr\u003e …the process of extremism operates like a disease.\u003cbr\u003e It spreads slowly, changing people's behavior and causing them to act in violent ways.\u003cbr\u003e …there is a need to model these dynamics of social contagion.\u003cbr\u003e It's very similar to the equations epidemiologists use—for example, to predict the dynamics of a coronavirus outbreak.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e --- From \"Chapter 8: Histories of the Near Future\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e An even more worrying development is the shift in Western democracies from a \"class-based party system\" to a \"majority-elite party system.\"\u003cbr\u003e Earlier in this book (Chapter 8), we discussed this transition taking place in the United States.\u003cbr\u003e The Democratic Party, which was the party of the working class during the New Deal era, became the party of the highly educated 10 percent by 2000. \u003cbr\u003eThe Republican Party, its rival, primarily caters to the wealthy 1 percent and ignores the 90 percent… When political parties abandon the working class, it creates a sea change in how social power is distributed within society.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e It is clear that we are entering a particularly turbulent period in world history.\u003cbr\u003e In the coming years, climate change, pandemics, economic recessions, conflicts between nations, and massive migration flows will severely test the resilience of each nation.\u003cbr\u003e Will countries that have not tolerated rising levels of inequality (France, Denmark, Austria) be more resilient to these shocks? We want to know.\u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e --- From \"Chapter 9: The Wealth Pump and the Future of Democracy\"\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u003ch5\u003e \u003cb\u003ePublisher's Review\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003c\/h5\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e \u003cb\u003eCompetition and conflict within the elite, anti-elites who failed to enter the elite,\u003cbr\u003e Mass impoverishment leads to recurrent political instability.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eIn his book, Re-Enlightenment, Steven Pinker argues that the world is getting better and that science and rational thinking are the driving forces behind social progress.\u003cbr\u003e But looking at the chaotic situation today, it's hard to be optimistic that the world will necessarily get better.\u003cbr\u003e According to Peter Turchin, all complex human societies have experienced recurring waves of political instability, and modern times are no exception.\u003cbr\u003e Turchin examines some 300 crises that have occurred on every continent around the world, from the Napoleonic era to the present day, and analyzes why societies fall into crisis.\u003cbr\u003e According to him, four structural drivers lead to cyclical political instability.\u003cbr\u003e These include impoverishment leading to mass mobilization potential, elite overproduction resulting in internal conflict within the elite, weakened fiscal soundness and weakened state legitimacy, and geopolitical factors. \u003cbr\u003eThe most important driving factor is competition and conflict within the elite, which is a reliable predictor of an approaching crisis.\u003cbr\u003e For today's America or other large, powerful empires, geopolitics is of little importance (according to Arnold Toynbee, empires die not by murder but by suicide).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e It is clear that the United States (and the world order it leads) is entering a turbulent period.\u003cbr\u003e Many people point to Trump's election as a symbol of that.\u003cbr\u003e How did Trump become president of the United States? Trump is not the first \"super-rich\" person to run for president without political experience.\u003cbr\u003e Steve Forbes (who lost in the Republican primary in 1996 and 2000) and billionaire Ross Perot (who ran as an independent in 1992 and 1996) ran unsuccessfully. \u003cbr\u003eWhat's the difference between these two? First, the impoverishment of the American public is far greater in 2016 and 2024 than it was in 1990. (According to Angus Deaton's \"Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism,\" life expectancy in the United States has been declining since 2014, and especially for white workers aged 45-54 with a high school education or less.)\u003cbr\u003e Americans who felt left behind expressed their discontent with the ruling class by voting for Trump (according to Turchin, the Democratic Party, which had been the party of the working class during the New Deal era, became the party of the top 1% and 10%, and the Republican Party, which had been the political vehicle of the top 1%, was taken over by a populist faction).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Second, the overproduction of elites in the United States was at work.\u003cbr\u003e This can be confirmed by several indicators. First, the number of super-rich people in the United States (those with assets of more than $10 million) began to increase rapidly starting in the 1980s. \u003cbr\u003eThe number of millionaires increased from 66,000 households in 1983 to 693,000 households in 2019 (inflation-adjusted figure).\u003cbr\u003e Additionally, the number of wealthy individuals seeking to become federal representatives (both House and Senate) has been increasing since the 1990s, with the number of wealthy aspirants running for office nearly doubling between 2000 and 2018.\u003cbr\u003e And highly educated people are being mass-produced.\u003cbr\u003e American universities are churning out graduates with advanced degrees like master's and doctorates, but by the 2000s, the number of positions available for these graduates was far below the number of graduates with advanced degrees (Guy Standing, famous for his basic income argument, calls these frustrated elite aspirants the \"precariat\").\u003cbr\u003e The impoverishment of the masses, the overproduction of the elite, and the resulting conflict within the elite are increasingly undermining our civic cohesion. \u003cbr\u003eAt the same time, the social contract that underpins American society is weakening and the national spirit of cooperation is fading.\u003cbr\u003e The result is a collapse of trust in state institutions and a dismantling of the social norms and democratic institutions that govern public discourse.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eHistory is driven by structural forces:\u003cbr\u003e Historical Path Changed by Elite Overproduction\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The factors that triggered the American Civil War were mass impoverishment and elite overproduction.\u003cbr\u003e Between the 1820s and 1860s, relative wages (the share of GDP paid to workers) fell by nearly 50% (similar to what has happened in the last 50 years!).\u003cbr\u003e The impact this had on the well-being of ordinary people was enormous.\u003cbr\u003e Life expectancy decreased by 8 years and height decreased.\u003cbr\u003e Signs of discontent were also evident in the greatly increased number of deadly riots in the cities (38 between 1855 and 1860).\u003cbr\u003e And there was elite overproduction. \u003cbr\u003eSince the 1820s, most of the fruits of growth have been concentrated in the hands of the elite, whose numbers and wealth have increased dramatically.\u003cbr\u003e In particular, the economic interests of the wealthy Southerners, who had originally been America's ruling class, clashed with those of the new millionaires in the North, who had their roots in railroads, steel, and mining.\u003cbr\u003e As the number of elites increased rapidly, competition for government positions intensified.\u003cbr\u003e History books tell us that the Civil War was a conflict over slavery, but in reality it was a fight over \"slavery politics.\"\u003cbr\u003e Lincoln initially did not seek to abolish slavery, but only opposed its expansion into new states. However, after he was elected, the South seceded from the Union, triggering war.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Let's look at the 2011 Egyptian revolution (the starting point of the Arab Spring).\u003cbr\u003e We've heard that the Egyptian revolution was the result of massive popular protests against excessive police violence, the lack of civil liberties and freedom of expression, high unemployment, rising food prices, and low wages. \u003cbr\u003eTo some extent, that is true.\u003cbr\u003e But there were forces moving beneath the surface.\u003cbr\u003e Before the 1990s, only a small minority of young Egyptians had achieved a high level of education, but the Mubarak regime, with its modernization goals, massively expanded university education, and the number of university graduates increased rapidly after 1995.\u003cbr\u003e But the number of positions available for young people with these degrees remained largely unchanged, and unemployed graduates turned out as revolutionary forces in mass anti-regime protests.\u003cbr\u003e There was conflict within the elite.\u003cbr\u003e Mubarak, Sadat's successor, broke with the centuries-old military rule of Egypt since the Mamluks when he took power and groomed his son, Gamal Mubarak, to succeed him.\u003cbr\u003e When mass protests erupted in 2011, the military stood by and watched as Mubarak's regime fell. \u003cbr\u003eEgypt returned to military rule after the military overthrew the disparate forces that had seized power through revolution (Morsi's regime).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, which dissolved the Soviet Union in 1991 with the Belarus Agreements, were similar in that they had similar cultures and were anocracy states moving from dictatorship to democracy.\u003cbr\u003e But it is ironic that Ukraine, the most democratic of these, is the poorest and most unstable, while Belarus, the most authoritarian, enjoys relative prosperity and stability.\u003cbr\u003e The reason the 2014 revolution in Ukraine succeeded and the 2021 uprising in Belarus failed was because the ruling groups had different characteristics.\u003cbr\u003e In Ukraine, the wealth pump created by the mass privatization of state-owned enterprises after the collapse of the Soviet Union led to overproduction by oligarchs, conflicts among them, and repeated collapse of the state. \u003cbr\u003eIn Belarus, the state retained ownership of major industrial conglomerates, preventing the rise of oligarchs.\u003cbr\u003e In 2020, mass protests against the Lukashenko regime erupted, but contrary to popular expectations, the regime did not collapse.\u003cbr\u003e Lukashenko has built strong links with the military elite, and there have been no defectors.\u003cbr\u003e In Belarus, there was no wealth pump, no oligarchs and no conflict between them.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eLessons from History: How to Escape the Crisis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e What was the conclusion of the crisis database cases collected by Turchin? The overall conclusion is bleak.\u003cbr\u003e There were also many cases of significant population decline (due to war, revolution, epidemic disease, etc.), and in about two-thirds of cases, large-scale downward migration was observed, with elites falling to the ranks of the commoners.\u003cbr\u003e There are very few instances where societies have weathered a crisis with minimal or no major impact. \u003cbr\u003eRepresentative examples include Britain and Russia, which survived the revolutionary period in the 19th century, and the United States after the Great Depression in the 20th century.\u003cbr\u003e Britain in the mid-19th century was undoubtedly a politically unstable society.\u003cbr\u003e As unprecedented, long-term economic growth took hold, the number of economic elites and college students began to increase significantly.\u003cbr\u003e Comparing the riots and resulting deaths from 1830 to 1867 with those of earlier periods provides insight into the extent of political instability Britain was experiencing.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e However, Britain got through this period without a large-scale civil war or revolution.\u003cbr\u003e First of all, because it was a vast empire, some of the overproduced elite emigrated to various parts of the world (such as the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand).\u003cbr\u003e And there were important institutional reforms.\u003cbr\u003e As the uprisings continued, Britain's political elite began to feel the need for decisive reform. \u003cbr\u003eIn 1832, the right to vote was extended, in 1834 the Poor Law was reformed, and over the next two decades numerous further reforms took place (including the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846).\u003cbr\u003e Through this process, real wages in Britain doubled over the 50 years after 1867.\u003cbr\u003e As one historian has noted, from the 1820s onwards, British elites demonstrated a remarkable ability to reform institutions and transform themselves from a fiscal-military state into an administrative state capable of meeting the demands of an increasingly complex commercial and industrial society.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Another example is the period of the Great Compression (a phenomenon in which the income gap between the rich and the poor and the wage gap between workers narrowed rapidly due to strong tax policies such as tax increases) that lasted from the 1930s to the 1960s.\u003cbr\u003e During the Gilded Age of the late 19th century, America's economic and political elite paid no attention to the well-being of the working class. \u003cbr\u003eBut as riots became more frequent (notably the 1917 St. Louis riots that left 170 dead and the 1921 Tulsa riots that left 300 dead) and the socialist revolution in the Soviet Union heightened anxiety, the idea that measures to stabilize the situation were needed began to take hold among elites.\u003cbr\u003e Through legislation, collective bargaining by labor unions was legalized, a minimum wage system was introduced, and a social security system was established.\u003cbr\u003e In 1924, the passage of the Immigration Act reduced immigration, creating a powerful impetus for real wage increases over the next several decades.\u003cbr\u003e At the same time, the Great Depression partially eliminated elite overproduction (the number of millionaires fell from 1,600 in 1925 to less than 900 in 1950).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePredictions of historical dynamics: What about South Korea?\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eTurchin argues that there are important recurring patterns in history, and that these can be observed across the entire span of history, spanning the past 10,000 years.\u003cbr\u003e The field he leads is called Cliodynamics.\u003cbr\u003e He began his research career as an ecologist and experienced the revolution brought about by complexity science in animal ecology in the 1980s, along with the development of computers.\u003cbr\u003e It combined computer modeling and big data analysis to answer questions such as why many animal populations go through cycles of population growth and decline.\u003cbr\u003e He has been applying this methodology to history since the 1990s.\u003cbr\u003e In this respect, Turchin's analysis is unrelated to values ​​such as conservatism or progressivism. \u003cbr\u003eWe observe the laboratory with a cool-headedness, as if from the outside, and seek ways for society to change steadily without a cataclysmic event that could kill or injure many people.\u003cbr\u003e South Korea has been producing an overabundance of elites by mass-producing college graduates since the 1980s, and inequality has worsened since the 2010s.\u003cbr\u003e In a situation where conflict has already reached its peak, even the authority of the courts, which can be considered the most basic social agreement, is being undermined through martial law and the impeachment of the president.\u003cbr\u003e According to Turchin's analysis, it is time for South Korea to gather its wisdom to understand where it is now, where it is going, and how to overcome this crisis. \u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:95%;padding-top:20px;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;padding-bottom:20px\"\u003e GOODS SPECIFICS \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"text-align:left;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6em;\"\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003eDate of issue:\u003c\/strong\u003e March 24, 2025\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003ePage count, weight, size:\u003c\/strong\u003e 424 pages | 570g | 148*210*28mm\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003eISBN13:\u003c\/strong\u003e 9791193166949\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003cdiv style=\"width:100%;margin-bottom:5px;line-height:1.6em;font-size:14px\"\u003e - \u003cstrong\u003eISBN10:\u003c\/strong\u003e 1193166942 \u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003ccenter\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd style=\"height:10px\"\u003e\u003c\/td\u003e\u003c\/tr\u003e\u003c\/table\u003e\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\u003cspan\u003e\u003c\/span\u003e\n\n\u003c\/center\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/center\u003e","brand":"LIBRAIRIE COREENNE","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":43894314336298,"sku":"140376","price":32.0,"currency_code":"EUR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0683\/2750\/5962\/files\/117672aa76724d732fa16ccb4878d14c.jpg?v=1765431025","url":"https:\/\/librairie.coreenne.fr\/en\/products\/140376","provider":"LIBRAIRIE COREENNE","version":"1.0","type":"link"}