“Now that both stocks and real estate are unstable,
Why the Rich Focus on the Dollar, the Yen, and Gold

A book that covers the megatrends of the dollar, yen, and gold, as well as smart investment methods.

*** The latest work by the author of 『The Great Migration of Wealth』 and 『History of Crisis』, which have captivated 500,000 readers.
*** People who are in the spotlight appearing on tvN's "You Quiz" and CBS's "Sebashi"
*** Includes a special supplement, "Oh Geon-young's Secret Economic Class," that will open your eyes to the news.

The nature of the interest rate environment surrounding the global economy is changing.
In this situation, what will be the future course of major currencies such as the dollar, yen, and gold?
It is now impossible to say for sure whether the current pattern will continue or whether a major change, unprecedented in the past, will occur.
In this new book, author Oh Geon-young, South Korea's leading macroeconomic expert, offers insights that allow us to properly assess the current murky economic situation. He analyzes the causes of the current issues, including the first dollar-won exchange rate of 1,400 won during the IMF foreign exchange crisis, the ultra-strong yen, and the daily record-breaking gold price. He also presents future scenarios and offers advice on wise investment strategies.

Central banks around the world have raised interest rates significantly due to inflation that has returned after 40 years.
And now, with the fight against inflation barely gaining momentum, they appear poised to cut interest rates.
The media is reporting on the central bank's interest rate cut, and the interest rates we currently feel are somewhat higher than in the past.
Perhaps, with the exception of the exceptional circumstances of recent years, we have been living in a world of steadily falling interest rates.

--- p.25

If demand for dollars increases due to expectations that the positive impact of interest rate cuts will strengthen investment rather than decreasing demand for dollars due to the reduced attractiveness of interest rates, then the dollar may strengthen despite the U.S. interest rate cut, contrary to the textbook content.
In fact, since September 2024, when the US Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, investor inflows into US asset markets have intensified.

--- p.100

I believe that there will come a time when the dollar-won exchange rate will be higher than it is now in the medium to long term.
However, this is only a structural change that looks to the distant future. Looking at the four years following Trump's election, I believe that the dollar-won exchange rate band will significantly widen rather than the dollar strengthening unilaterally.
What does "broadening the band" mean? Yes, the upper limit of the exchange rate may rise significantly, but it can also unexpectedly show high volatility, with the dollar-won exchange rate declining significantly.

--- p.166

In order to resolve the trade deficit, the United States will frequently demand that trading countries with large trade surpluses with the United States strengthen their currencies, i.e., weaken the dollar.
If this happens, rather than the dollar-won exchange rate finding its way to a strong dollar and continuing to move forward, there is a high possibility that the dollar will fluctuate more significantly, leading to increased exchange rate volatility.
Yes, you can write 'Trump's second term administration' and read it as 'increased volatility in the dollar-won exchange rate.'

--- p.197

For the Bank of Japan, which is burdened by both the sharp yen appreciation and the burden of interest rate hikes, the thought of raising interest rates to prevent the yen from weakening will be quite burdensome.
The Bank of Japan is under a great burden and must take action.
So, in order to minimize mistakes, you need to act cautiously and not move too quickly.
And rather than taking any proactive action, we will try to move slowly, even if it takes a little while, by observing the effects of each policy.
--- p.269

If both rapid appreciation and depreciation of the yen are difficult, stability would be desirable.
To keep the yen exchange rate at a certain level or to ensure a steady decline, wouldn't the Japanese foreign exchange authorities need to continuously massage the yen upwards and downwards? If they think the rate needs to be lowered slowly, they should raise interest rates. However, if the exchange rate is about to fall too quickly (leading to a rapid yen appreciation), they should slow down further interest rate hikes to control the pace.

--- p.277

Considering the volatility of the dollar's strength and weakness in the interim and the long-term nature of dollar investments, significant patience will be required when investing large sums at once.
To avoid being forced into this situation, investing in small, lump-sum dollar assets is key.
And this type of small-scale, lump-sum investment approach is also quite effective when approaching yen and dollar investments as portfolio insurance.

--- p.305

Those unfamiliar with gold investing often think of gold as a near-perfect asset.
It's a very simple logic that gold will continue to rise as it is everyone's favorite asset.
Of course, I also believe that gold prices will rise further in the medium to long term, but as I mentioned in the previous section, approaching the market with the expectation of short-term price increases is not a good investment strategy.
Because a variety of unexpected factors can have adverse effects on gold prices.

--- p.396

When looking at the dollar-won exchange rate, I found the reason why the Korean won has been stable compared to other currencies since the 2000s in China.
I think that China special is now in its final stages.
We should pay attention to the major trends in the dollar-won exchange rate that will be created by the reduction in the large trade surplus recorded through mass exports.

--- p.418