How Numbers Tell the Truth
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Description
Book Introduction
Vaclav Smil, a global energy, environmental, and economic thinker How to read the truth about the world with data and statistics “It makes you think about the stories behind the statistics.” Bill Gates “A compelling account of the true state of our world and where we are headed.” Steven Pinker "A master of statistical analysis, a leading thinker on the history of global development." [The Guardian] Has human life expectancy peaked? Why can't unemployment alone explain everything? Are electric cars truly environmentally friendly? Why do we need fossil fuels for wind power? From population and food to energy, technology, the environment, and international politics, this book reveals 71 truths about the world, based on clear, fact-based data and rigorous statistical analysis. When you understand the meaning and context of the numbers, you see reality. In an age of uncertainty where facts are ignored, how to understand the world deeply and broadly, eliminating speculation, misunderstanding, and prejudice. |
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index
To Korean readers
prolog
Part 1: People Living in Our World
1 What happens if you have fewer children?
2. What's the best indicator of quality of life? Look at infant mortality rates.
3 Best Investment Returns: Vaccinations
4 Why It's Difficult to Predict How Bad a Pandemic Will Be When It Occurs
5. The average height is increasing.
6 Has life expectancy finally peaked?
7 The Relationship Between Sweat and Hunting
8 How many people did it take to build the Great Pyramid?
9 Why Unemployment Rates Don't Tell the Whole Story
10 What makes us happy?
The emergence of 11 megacities
Part 2: The State in the Age of Globalization
12 The Tragedy of World War I
13 Is the United States really an exceptional country?
14 Why should Europe be satisfied with the status quo?
15 Brexit: What Matters Most Will Not Change
16 Japan's Future
17 How far can China go?
18 India vs. China
19 Why is manufacturing still important?
20 Russia and the United States: Things That Never Change
21 Declining Empires: There's Nothing New Under the Sun
Part 3: Machines, Designs, and Devices: The Inventions That Shaped the Modern World
22 How did the 1880s shape the modern world?
23 How did the electric motor become the power source of modern civilization?
24 Transformers: Silent, Passive Devices That Are Not Praised
25 Why isn't it time to phase out diesel engines yet?
26 Capturing the Moving Image: From Words to Electronics
27 From gramophones to streaming
28 Invention of the integrated circuit
29 Moore's Curse: Why Technological Progress Takes Longer Than We Think
30 Too much information increases too quickly
31 Realistic Thinking About Innovation
Part 4: Fuel and Electricity: Energy Sources in Our Society
32 Why are gas turbines the best choice?
33 Nuclear Power: An Unfulfilled Promise
34 Why do we need fossil fuels to generate electricity from wind?
35 How big can wind turbines get?
36 The slow rise of solar power
37 Why is sunlight still the best?
38 Why do we need a bigger battery?
39 Why are electric container ships still a distant prospect?
40 Real cost of electricity
41 The energy transition is bound to be slow
Part 5: Transportation and Traffic: How We Get Around
42 Shorter Transatlantic Journeys
43 The engine was invented before the bicycle!
44 The Amazing Story of Air-Inflatable Tires
45 When did the automobile era begin?
46 Hyundai's terrifying payload ratio
47 Why Electric Cars Aren't as Great as We Think - At Least Yet
48 When did the Jet Age begin?
49 Why is kerosene king?
50 How safe is air travel?
51 Which is more energy efficient: airplanes, trains, or cars?
Part 6: Food: Our Own Energy Source
52 A World Without Synthetic Ammonia
53 Increase wheat yields
54 Unacceptable amounts of food waste
55 Goodbye Mediterranean Diet!
56 Endangered Bluefin Tuna
57 Why is chicken so popular?
58 France is reducing its wine consumption
59 Reasonable meat consumption
60 Japanese Diet
61 Dairy Products Going Backwards
Part 7: To protect our world from environmental degradation
62 Animals vs. Artifacts: Which Is More Diverse?
63 Planet for Cows
64 Death of an Elephant
65 Why might the name Anthropocene be premature?
66 The History and Future of Concrete
67 Which is worse for the environment, cars or cell phones?
68 Which one has better insulation effect?
69 Triple Window: A Transparent Energy Solution
70 To improve the efficiency of home heating
71 War on Carbon
Epilogue
Acknowledgements
Translator's Note
References
Search
prolog
Part 1: People Living in Our World
1 What happens if you have fewer children?
2. What's the best indicator of quality of life? Look at infant mortality rates.
3 Best Investment Returns: Vaccinations
4 Why It's Difficult to Predict How Bad a Pandemic Will Be When It Occurs
5. The average height is increasing.
6 Has life expectancy finally peaked?
7 The Relationship Between Sweat and Hunting
8 How many people did it take to build the Great Pyramid?
9 Why Unemployment Rates Don't Tell the Whole Story
10 What makes us happy?
The emergence of 11 megacities
Part 2: The State in the Age of Globalization
12 The Tragedy of World War I
13 Is the United States really an exceptional country?
14 Why should Europe be satisfied with the status quo?
15 Brexit: What Matters Most Will Not Change
16 Japan's Future
17 How far can China go?
18 India vs. China
19 Why is manufacturing still important?
20 Russia and the United States: Things That Never Change
21 Declining Empires: There's Nothing New Under the Sun
Part 3: Machines, Designs, and Devices: The Inventions That Shaped the Modern World
22 How did the 1880s shape the modern world?
23 How did the electric motor become the power source of modern civilization?
24 Transformers: Silent, Passive Devices That Are Not Praised
25 Why isn't it time to phase out diesel engines yet?
26 Capturing the Moving Image: From Words to Electronics
27 From gramophones to streaming
28 Invention of the integrated circuit
29 Moore's Curse: Why Technological Progress Takes Longer Than We Think
30 Too much information increases too quickly
31 Realistic Thinking About Innovation
Part 4: Fuel and Electricity: Energy Sources in Our Society
32 Why are gas turbines the best choice?
33 Nuclear Power: An Unfulfilled Promise
34 Why do we need fossil fuels to generate electricity from wind?
35 How big can wind turbines get?
36 The slow rise of solar power
37 Why is sunlight still the best?
38 Why do we need a bigger battery?
39 Why are electric container ships still a distant prospect?
40 Real cost of electricity
41 The energy transition is bound to be slow
Part 5: Transportation and Traffic: How We Get Around
42 Shorter Transatlantic Journeys
43 The engine was invented before the bicycle!
44 The Amazing Story of Air-Inflatable Tires
45 When did the automobile era begin?
46 Hyundai's terrifying payload ratio
47 Why Electric Cars Aren't as Great as We Think - At Least Yet
48 When did the Jet Age begin?
49 Why is kerosene king?
50 How safe is air travel?
51 Which is more energy efficient: airplanes, trains, or cars?
Part 6: Food: Our Own Energy Source
52 A World Without Synthetic Ammonia
53 Increase wheat yields
54 Unacceptable amounts of food waste
55 Goodbye Mediterranean Diet!
56 Endangered Bluefin Tuna
57 Why is chicken so popular?
58 France is reducing its wine consumption
59 Reasonable meat consumption
60 Japanese Diet
61 Dairy Products Going Backwards
Part 7: To protect our world from environmental degradation
62 Animals vs. Artifacts: Which Is More Diverse?
63 Planet for Cows
64 Death of an Elephant
65 Why might the name Anthropocene be premature?
66 The History and Future of Concrete
67 Which is worse for the environment, cars or cell phones?
68 Which one has better insulation effect?
69 Triple Window: A Transparent Energy Solution
70 To improve the efficiency of home heating
71 War on Carbon
Epilogue
Acknowledgements
Translator's Note
References
Search
Detailed image
Into the book
No country has ever stopped its fertility decline at the replacement rate and maintained a constant population.
Rather, the number of people living in countries with a birth rate below replacement is increasing.
(…) Such global changes in fertility rates are bound to have significant strategic implications for population and economy.
For example, in 1900, about 18 percent of the world's population lived on the European continent, but in 2020, only 9.5 percent lived there.
In contrast, as of 2020, Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world's population.
As a result, Europe's importance has declined and Asia has risen significantly.
However, thanks to relatively high fertility rates, it is projected that about 75 percent of all newborns will be born in Africa over the next 50 years, from 2020 to 2070.
--- p.29~30
Is the United States an "empire"? Even if we believe the American empire truly exists, beginning in 1898 (when the Spanish-American War resulted in the annexation of the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam), should we believe it continues to grow in strength? World War II was the last major war in which the United States achieved a decisive victory.
The Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Afghanistan War, and the Iraq War were wars that continued tediously and resulted in great sacrifices, but it was difficult to clearly determine victory or defeat.
The Gulf War of 1990-1991 was short-lived, but it was not a decisive victory, as it led to the invasion of Iraq 12 years later and a long stalemate (2003-2011), resulting in much bloodshed.
The United States' share of world economic production has also been steadily declining since its abnormal peak in 1945 (by which time all other major economies were either devastated or devastated by the war).
Moreover, many countries that were once in the so-called US-centric orbit no longer tend to blindly follow or agree with the US's will.
Therefore, the United States cannot still be said to be an existing 'empire'.
--- p.134
Why do we measure economic growth using gross domestic product, or GDP? GDP simply represents the total value of goods and services traded in a country over a year.
As life gets better and the economy grows, GDP naturally increases, but it also increases when bad things happen to people and the environment.
(…) Even if illegal logging in tropical regions increases, destroying forests and reducing biodiversity, GDP increases as timber sales increase.
We are well aware of this contradiction, yet we still want high GDP growth rates and almost worship them, regardless of their source.
--- p.186
However, many key economic factors remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and there are no non-carbon alternatives that can rapidly and significantly replace those sectors.
Specifically, long-distance transport and transportation (jet passenger aircraft rely almost entirely on jet fuel, container ships, bulk carriers and tankers on bunker fuel and liquefied natural gas), the primary production of over a billion tons of iron in blast furnaces (which require coke from coal to smelt iron ore in blast furnaces), over 4 billion tons of cement (made in giant rotary kilns using low-grade fossil fuels), about 200 million tons of ammonia synthesis and about 300 million tons of plastic synthesis (which uses compounds derived from natural gas and crude oil as feedstock), and indoor heating (nowadays mainly natural gas) are among the sectors where non-carbon alternatives are hard to find.
We must approach the possibility of transitioning primary energy sources based on reality, not wishful thinking.
Replacing 10 billion tons of carbon-based fossil fuels is a different matter than increasing sales of small portable electronic devices to more than 1 billion units per year.
While the goal of selling electronic devices can be achieved within a few years, replacing fossil fuels is a task that will take decades.
--- p.236~237
The world is wasting food on a scale that can only be described as unacceptable.
Given all the concerns about the state of our planet's environment and our quality of life, the level of food waste is simply incomprehensible.
According to an assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), on average, 40 to 50 percent of root crops, fruits and vegetables, 35 percent of fish, 30 percent of grains, and 20 percent of vegetable oils, meat and dairy products are wasted each year.
In other words, more than one-third of the food harvested worldwide ends up as waste.
(…) The main reason food waste is rampant in wealthy countries is the gap between overproduction and actual consumption.
Overeating is a common phenomenon in most high-income countries, but they often provide food suitable for hard-working loggers or coal miners, not for a sedentary and aging population.
--- p.301~302
The curse of energy policy is that attempts to solve problems with engineering or science and technology are unproven.
If you had to choose between self-driving solar cars, inherently safe nuclear reactors, and genetically enhanced photosynthesis, which would you choose? (…) Why would dreamers pour money into arcane energy conversion technologies that might not have a significant impact, or even might have negative environmental impacts, when simple insulation methods like triple-glazed windows could save significant energy? What's wrong with simple insulation methods?
Rather, the number of people living in countries with a birth rate below replacement is increasing.
(…) Such global changes in fertility rates are bound to have significant strategic implications for population and economy.
For example, in 1900, about 18 percent of the world's population lived on the European continent, but in 2020, only 9.5 percent lived there.
In contrast, as of 2020, Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world's population.
As a result, Europe's importance has declined and Asia has risen significantly.
However, thanks to relatively high fertility rates, it is projected that about 75 percent of all newborns will be born in Africa over the next 50 years, from 2020 to 2070.
--- p.29~30
Is the United States an "empire"? Even if we believe the American empire truly exists, beginning in 1898 (when the Spanish-American War resulted in the annexation of the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam), should we believe it continues to grow in strength? World War II was the last major war in which the United States achieved a decisive victory.
The Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Afghanistan War, and the Iraq War were wars that continued tediously and resulted in great sacrifices, but it was difficult to clearly determine victory or defeat.
The Gulf War of 1990-1991 was short-lived, but it was not a decisive victory, as it led to the invasion of Iraq 12 years later and a long stalemate (2003-2011), resulting in much bloodshed.
The United States' share of world economic production has also been steadily declining since its abnormal peak in 1945 (by which time all other major economies were either devastated or devastated by the war).
Moreover, many countries that were once in the so-called US-centric orbit no longer tend to blindly follow or agree with the US's will.
Therefore, the United States cannot still be said to be an existing 'empire'.
--- p.134
Why do we measure economic growth using gross domestic product, or GDP? GDP simply represents the total value of goods and services traded in a country over a year.
As life gets better and the economy grows, GDP naturally increases, but it also increases when bad things happen to people and the environment.
(…) Even if illegal logging in tropical regions increases, destroying forests and reducing biodiversity, GDP increases as timber sales increase.
We are well aware of this contradiction, yet we still want high GDP growth rates and almost worship them, regardless of their source.
--- p.186
However, many key economic factors remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and there are no non-carbon alternatives that can rapidly and significantly replace those sectors.
Specifically, long-distance transport and transportation (jet passenger aircraft rely almost entirely on jet fuel, container ships, bulk carriers and tankers on bunker fuel and liquefied natural gas), the primary production of over a billion tons of iron in blast furnaces (which require coke from coal to smelt iron ore in blast furnaces), over 4 billion tons of cement (made in giant rotary kilns using low-grade fossil fuels), about 200 million tons of ammonia synthesis and about 300 million tons of plastic synthesis (which uses compounds derived from natural gas and crude oil as feedstock), and indoor heating (nowadays mainly natural gas) are among the sectors where non-carbon alternatives are hard to find.
We must approach the possibility of transitioning primary energy sources based on reality, not wishful thinking.
Replacing 10 billion tons of carbon-based fossil fuels is a different matter than increasing sales of small portable electronic devices to more than 1 billion units per year.
While the goal of selling electronic devices can be achieved within a few years, replacing fossil fuels is a task that will take decades.
--- p.236~237
The world is wasting food on a scale that can only be described as unacceptable.
Given all the concerns about the state of our planet's environment and our quality of life, the level of food waste is simply incomprehensible.
According to an assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), on average, 40 to 50 percent of root crops, fruits and vegetables, 35 percent of fish, 30 percent of grains, and 20 percent of vegetable oils, meat and dairy products are wasted each year.
In other words, more than one-third of the food harvested worldwide ends up as waste.
(…) The main reason food waste is rampant in wealthy countries is the gap between overproduction and actual consumption.
Overeating is a common phenomenon in most high-income countries, but they often provide food suitable for hard-working loggers or coal miners, not for a sedentary and aging population.
--- p.301~302
The curse of energy policy is that attempts to solve problems with engineering or science and technology are unproven.
If you had to choose between self-driving solar cars, inherently safe nuclear reactors, and genetically enhanced photosynthesis, which would you choose? (…) Why would dreamers pour money into arcane energy conversion technologies that might not have a significant impact, or even might have negative environmental impacts, when simple insulation methods like triple-glazed windows could save significant energy? What's wrong with simple insulation methods?
--- p.379~383
Publisher's Review
“A book that makes you think about the stories behind statistics.” _Bill Gates
★★★ Bestseller in the UK, US, Japan, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia
★★★ Selected as one of the world's top 100 thinkers
★★★ Recommended by Bill Gates, Harvard University Professor Steven Pinker, and London Business School Professor Linda Yu
★★★ Recommended by The Times, The Guardian, The Financial Times, Foreign Policy, and Kirkus Reviews
★★★ Exported to 17 countries worldwide
Don't guess, don't assume, don't guess.
Numbers don't lie.
71 Fact-Checking Stories with Data and Statistics
- Has human life expectancy peaked?
- Why can't the unemployment rate alone explain everything?
What are China's limits? Can India replicate China's economic growth?
- Are electric cars really environmentally friendly?
- Why do we need fossil fuels for wind power generation?
- What if reasonable meat consumption was possible without damaging the environment?
- What is the most effective way to save energy and reduce carbon emissions right now?
Can you be certain you truly understand the world? Are you perhaps relying on vague assumptions, speculation, and unverified common sense to perceive reality? "How Numbers Tell the Truth" reveals 71 truths about the world through clear, fact-based data and three-dimensional statistical analysis.
From population and food to energy, technology, the environment, and international affairs, understanding the meaning and context of numbers reveals reality.
In an age of uncertainty where facts are ignored, it provides a way to understand the world deeply and broadly, eliminating guesswork, misunderstanding, and prejudice.
A new book by Vaclav Smil, a global energy, environmental, and economic thinker.
Our past, present, future opportunities and prospects, as seen through numbers
The author, Vaclav Smil, Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba, Canada, is an environmental scientist and economic historian who has led research across a wide range of disciplines for over 50 years, crossing academic boundaries in areas such as energy, environment, food, population, economics, history, and public policy.
He is receiving worldwide attention as Bill Gates' most trusted thinker.
Bill Gates, who has read all of Vaclav Smil's works, said that he waits for Smil's book like others wait for the new Star Wars movie, and recommended it as "making you think about the stories behind statistics."
Bill Gates's argument that we should solve energy poverty in developing countries to prevent climate change is also due to his influence.
This book consists of 71 stories covering all the fields that Vaclav Smil has studied so far.
While covering a wide range of topics related to modern civilization, including why manufacturing remains crucial even as the Fourth Industrial Revolution begins, the limitations of decarbonization strategies including nuclear and solar power, and the most effective ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions right now, the book offers in-depth analysis.
It also included many domestic factors, such as Korea's total fertility rate, the manufacturing sector's share of GDP, growth rate, and happiness score.
Filled with fresh knowledge that breaks existing stereotypes, this book is a rare masterpiece that is both practical and credible.
From population and food to energy, technology, environment, and international affairs.
Understanding the meaning and context of numbers reveals reality.
Numbers don't lie, but those who interpret them can easily misinterpret them and create misunderstandings and prejudices.
How can we avoid errors and discern truth from data? Vaclav Smil argues that we must go beyond simple mathematical calculations and place numbers in their proper context.
To truly understand the true meaning of numerous statistics and data, such as a country's infant mortality rate, savings level, energy consumption, and eating habits, it is necessary to compare and analyze them within a historical, social, and international context.
Above all, this book was written to clarify the facts.
To understand what's really going on in our world, we need to put the numbers into proper context.
My goal is not just to prove that numbers don't lie, but to find out what truth they contain.
_prolog
Vaclav Smil's outlook on the future is neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
He judges the reality of the world around us from a neutral standpoint.
Only when we face reality as it is, without being swayed by uncertain hopes and unfounded anxieties, can we find a path toward tomorrow.
This book helps us understand the true picture of the world by depicting our past and present through numbers and providing insight into the opportunities and prospects for the future.
A must-read for preparing for tomorrow with more viable strategies.
? Vaccination is a sound financial investment.
Vaclav Smil approaches vaccination not from a medical perspective, but from an economic perspective called the "benefit-cost ratio."
In 2016, U.S. medical experts calculated the return on investment for vaccine rollout in 100 low- and middle-income countries.
Comparing the costs of manufacturing, supplying, and transporting vaccines with the estimated benefits gained from avoiding illness and death, the study found that for every dollar invested in vaccinations, $16 could be saved.
When the economic benefits are interpreted broadly, the benefit-cost ratio is 44 times.
Ultimately, there is no method as sure and effective as vaccination in preventing infectious diseases.
How far can China grow?
Experts have been predicting for years that China would surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy.
However, based on purchasing power parity (PPP), China's GDP in 2019 already surpassed that of the United States.
Of course, there are also clear factors that cast a shadow over China's economic growth.
The main issues pointed out include the enormous gap between rich and poor, severe air and water pollution, and extremely small oil and natural gas reserves.
Vaclav Smil, in particular, draws attention to the rapid pace of aging.
China abandoned its "one family, one child" policy in 2015.
But China's demographic advantage is already waning.
As the proportion of the economically active population begins to decline, China's industrial dynamism will also decline.
Smil suggests comparing the economic growth of Japan and China, which grew to a level that threatened the world and then experienced 30 years of stagnation.
China in 2020 and China in 2050 may be very different from what you predicted.
? The 21st century lifestyle originated in the 1880s?
It is often thought that the modern lifestyle was perfected in the late 20th century.
However, Vaclav Smil evaluates the 1880s as a wonderful era that enriched human life.
Thermal and hydroelectric power were first introduced to the market in 1882 and still produce more than 80% of the world's electricity consumption.
The discovery of electricity led to the invention of the elevator in 1889, and elevators made it possible for skyscrapers to grow ever higher.
Also, with the invention of ballpoint pens, bicycles, light rail, internal combustion engines, turnstiles, electric irons, and cash registers, the daily lives of Americans in the 1880s were not much different from those of today.
By examining data closely like this, we can capture the flow of historical development.
? Lithium-ion battery limitations
Wind and solar power are energy sources whose power production varies greatly depending on the weather.
In Los Angeles, even with enough solar panels on rooftops, it's not uncommon to see a shortage of 80% of daily demand in January and a surplus of as much as 65% in May.
So, no matter how much electricity you produce, you can't rely entirely on intermittent energy sources like solar and wind power if you can't store it in batteries.
This means that battery storage capacity must be expanded to promote the use of renewable energy.
U.S. power company AES Group is building the world's largest power storage system, consisting of more than 18,000 lithium-ion batteries.
The device is expected to supply 100 megawatts for four hours.
However, this is two orders of magnitude lower than the total energy required by Asia's major cities.
Over the past 70 years, the energy density of top-of-the-line commercial batteries has not even quadrupled.
Innovation in battery technology is coming slowly.
? A reasonable way to consume meat without damaging the environment.
Meat consumption has been pointed out as being harmful to health and has a negative impact on the environment.
Not only does it require a huge amount of land and water to provide feed for livestock, but there are also strong claims that the methane emitted by livestock is one of the causes of global warming.
But Vaclav Smil says the reality is not so pessimistic.
He recommends reasonable meat consumption from an economic perspective.
This is a method to control the consumption ratio of the main meats: pork, chicken, and beef.
In 2018, pork accounted for 40% of meat produced worldwide, chicken accounted for 37%, and beef accounted for 23%.
Among these, beef is significantly less efficient at converting feed into meat than chicken.
In other words, if the proportion of meat production is adjusted to 40%, 50%, and 10%, respectively, even if the total production remains the same, feed can be saved significantly, reducing the burden on the environment by more than half.
★★★ Bestseller in the UK, US, Japan, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia
★★★ Selected as one of the world's top 100 thinkers
★★★ Recommended by Bill Gates, Harvard University Professor Steven Pinker, and London Business School Professor Linda Yu
★★★ Recommended by The Times, The Guardian, The Financial Times, Foreign Policy, and Kirkus Reviews
★★★ Exported to 17 countries worldwide
Don't guess, don't assume, don't guess.
Numbers don't lie.
71 Fact-Checking Stories with Data and Statistics
- Has human life expectancy peaked?
- Why can't the unemployment rate alone explain everything?
What are China's limits? Can India replicate China's economic growth?
- Are electric cars really environmentally friendly?
- Why do we need fossil fuels for wind power generation?
- What if reasonable meat consumption was possible without damaging the environment?
- What is the most effective way to save energy and reduce carbon emissions right now?
Can you be certain you truly understand the world? Are you perhaps relying on vague assumptions, speculation, and unverified common sense to perceive reality? "How Numbers Tell the Truth" reveals 71 truths about the world through clear, fact-based data and three-dimensional statistical analysis.
From population and food to energy, technology, the environment, and international affairs, understanding the meaning and context of numbers reveals reality.
In an age of uncertainty where facts are ignored, it provides a way to understand the world deeply and broadly, eliminating guesswork, misunderstanding, and prejudice.
A new book by Vaclav Smil, a global energy, environmental, and economic thinker.
Our past, present, future opportunities and prospects, as seen through numbers
The author, Vaclav Smil, Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba, Canada, is an environmental scientist and economic historian who has led research across a wide range of disciplines for over 50 years, crossing academic boundaries in areas such as energy, environment, food, population, economics, history, and public policy.
He is receiving worldwide attention as Bill Gates' most trusted thinker.
Bill Gates, who has read all of Vaclav Smil's works, said that he waits for Smil's book like others wait for the new Star Wars movie, and recommended it as "making you think about the stories behind statistics."
Bill Gates's argument that we should solve energy poverty in developing countries to prevent climate change is also due to his influence.
This book consists of 71 stories covering all the fields that Vaclav Smil has studied so far.
While covering a wide range of topics related to modern civilization, including why manufacturing remains crucial even as the Fourth Industrial Revolution begins, the limitations of decarbonization strategies including nuclear and solar power, and the most effective ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions right now, the book offers in-depth analysis.
It also included many domestic factors, such as Korea's total fertility rate, the manufacturing sector's share of GDP, growth rate, and happiness score.
Filled with fresh knowledge that breaks existing stereotypes, this book is a rare masterpiece that is both practical and credible.
From population and food to energy, technology, environment, and international affairs.
Understanding the meaning and context of numbers reveals reality.
Numbers don't lie, but those who interpret them can easily misinterpret them and create misunderstandings and prejudices.
How can we avoid errors and discern truth from data? Vaclav Smil argues that we must go beyond simple mathematical calculations and place numbers in their proper context.
To truly understand the true meaning of numerous statistics and data, such as a country's infant mortality rate, savings level, energy consumption, and eating habits, it is necessary to compare and analyze them within a historical, social, and international context.
Above all, this book was written to clarify the facts.
To understand what's really going on in our world, we need to put the numbers into proper context.
My goal is not just to prove that numbers don't lie, but to find out what truth they contain.
_prolog
Vaclav Smil's outlook on the future is neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
He judges the reality of the world around us from a neutral standpoint.
Only when we face reality as it is, without being swayed by uncertain hopes and unfounded anxieties, can we find a path toward tomorrow.
This book helps us understand the true picture of the world by depicting our past and present through numbers and providing insight into the opportunities and prospects for the future.
A must-read for preparing for tomorrow with more viable strategies.
? Vaccination is a sound financial investment.
Vaclav Smil approaches vaccination not from a medical perspective, but from an economic perspective called the "benefit-cost ratio."
In 2016, U.S. medical experts calculated the return on investment for vaccine rollout in 100 low- and middle-income countries.
Comparing the costs of manufacturing, supplying, and transporting vaccines with the estimated benefits gained from avoiding illness and death, the study found that for every dollar invested in vaccinations, $16 could be saved.
When the economic benefits are interpreted broadly, the benefit-cost ratio is 44 times.
Ultimately, there is no method as sure and effective as vaccination in preventing infectious diseases.
How far can China grow?
Experts have been predicting for years that China would surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy.
However, based on purchasing power parity (PPP), China's GDP in 2019 already surpassed that of the United States.
Of course, there are also clear factors that cast a shadow over China's economic growth.
The main issues pointed out include the enormous gap between rich and poor, severe air and water pollution, and extremely small oil and natural gas reserves.
Vaclav Smil, in particular, draws attention to the rapid pace of aging.
China abandoned its "one family, one child" policy in 2015.
But China's demographic advantage is already waning.
As the proportion of the economically active population begins to decline, China's industrial dynamism will also decline.
Smil suggests comparing the economic growth of Japan and China, which grew to a level that threatened the world and then experienced 30 years of stagnation.
China in 2020 and China in 2050 may be very different from what you predicted.
? The 21st century lifestyle originated in the 1880s?
It is often thought that the modern lifestyle was perfected in the late 20th century.
However, Vaclav Smil evaluates the 1880s as a wonderful era that enriched human life.
Thermal and hydroelectric power were first introduced to the market in 1882 and still produce more than 80% of the world's electricity consumption.
The discovery of electricity led to the invention of the elevator in 1889, and elevators made it possible for skyscrapers to grow ever higher.
Also, with the invention of ballpoint pens, bicycles, light rail, internal combustion engines, turnstiles, electric irons, and cash registers, the daily lives of Americans in the 1880s were not much different from those of today.
By examining data closely like this, we can capture the flow of historical development.
? Lithium-ion battery limitations
Wind and solar power are energy sources whose power production varies greatly depending on the weather.
In Los Angeles, even with enough solar panels on rooftops, it's not uncommon to see a shortage of 80% of daily demand in January and a surplus of as much as 65% in May.
So, no matter how much electricity you produce, you can't rely entirely on intermittent energy sources like solar and wind power if you can't store it in batteries.
This means that battery storage capacity must be expanded to promote the use of renewable energy.
U.S. power company AES Group is building the world's largest power storage system, consisting of more than 18,000 lithium-ion batteries.
The device is expected to supply 100 megawatts for four hours.
However, this is two orders of magnitude lower than the total energy required by Asia's major cities.
Over the past 70 years, the energy density of top-of-the-line commercial batteries has not even quadrupled.
Innovation in battery technology is coming slowly.
? A reasonable way to consume meat without damaging the environment.
Meat consumption has been pointed out as being harmful to health and has a negative impact on the environment.
Not only does it require a huge amount of land and water to provide feed for livestock, but there are also strong claims that the methane emitted by livestock is one of the causes of global warming.
But Vaclav Smil says the reality is not so pessimistic.
He recommends reasonable meat consumption from an economic perspective.
This is a method to control the consumption ratio of the main meats: pork, chicken, and beef.
In 2018, pork accounted for 40% of meat produced worldwide, chicken accounted for 37%, and beef accounted for 23%.
Among these, beef is significantly less efficient at converting feed into meat than chicken.
In other words, if the proportion of meat production is adjusted to 40%, 50%, and 10%, respectively, even if the total production remains the same, feed can be saved significantly, reducing the burden on the environment by more than half.
GOODS SPECIFICS
- Publication date: September 16, 2021
- Format: Hardcover book binding method guide
- Page count, weight, size: 432 pages | 614g | 135*210*25mm
- ISBN13: 9788934944218
- ISBN10: 8934944218
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