The 'rising domino effect' from Gangnam is shifting the center of gravity of rising housing prices to Gangbuk!
Professor Kim Kyung-min's research team, comprised of the country's top experts
A Comprehensive Analysis of the South Korean Real Estate Market in 2026

“It is clear enough to say with certainty that the real estate market will rise in 2026.
“The ‘rising domino effect’ that starts in Gangnam and spreads to Gangbuk will lead to an upward trend throughout Seoul.” The diagnosis of Professor Kim Kyung-min of Seoul National University, Korea’s top real estate expert, is clearer than ever.
As predicted last year, the market experienced a strong upward trend due to a confluence of factors including a supply cliff, interest rate cuts, and skyrocketing rents.
Now, the rise in housing prices in Gangnam will spread across the Han River to the mid- to low-priced areas in Gangbuk.
This is the point where the 'rising domino effect' following the real estate 'super cycle' is in full swing.

Professor Kim Kyung-min's research team, comprised of Korea's top experts, follows the trends and flow of the real estate sales and lease markets to reveal why a "steady upward domino effect" is inevitable for the next few years. They also examine newly emerging complexes priced at 900 million won or less through a "16 Leading Complex Report" for practical transactions.

"Real Estate Trends 2026," which provides insight into the domestic and international real estate market, including the June 27th measures, tariff wars and inflation, the polarization of the apartment market, and price trends in major regions, is a must-read before making any real estate transaction.

In 2025, the Seoul apartment market entered a period of rapid growth, led by Gangnam.
The transaction price soared by hundreds of millions of won in an instant, and the market began to overheat again.
Looking at the outlook after the June 27th measures, low-priced apartments (under 900 million won) will likely be a safe zone from regulation.
High-priced apartments, especially so-called "superstar complexes," are likely to hit record highs even as transaction volume declines.
Looking at the cumulative growth rate over the past few years, the movements in Gangnam and Gangbuk were similar.
Therefore, the key issue that will receive attention going forward is the 'rising domino effect' in which the upward trend in Gangnam area spreads to Gangbuk area.
--- From "Prologue: The Future of Seoul Real Estate Is Already Set"

As we approach 2026, there are two key facts that market participants need to be aware of.
The trend of the Seoul real estate "super cycle" is still ongoing, and there is a possibility of a "rising domino effect" where the price increase that started in Gangnam will spread to the low-priced apartment areas of Gangbuk.
While the limit of 'up to 600 million won' may seem strong, it is questionable whether it will have the same effect on purchasing apartments in Gangbuk.
If we accurately understand the average transaction price of 25-pyeong and 33-pyeong apartments in Nowon-gu, Dobong-gu, and Seongbuk-gu as of 2025 and the average transaction price in Seoul, we can answer 'no' to the question of whether this loan limit is truly burdensome.
--- 「Part 1.
From “Looking Back at the Real Estate Market in 2025”

The Seoul real estate market peaked in the fourth quarter of 2021, bottomed out in the first quarter of 2023, and then temporarily adjusted in the third quarter of 2023 before entering a full-fledged upward trend in 2024, forming a W-shaped recovery pattern.
This pattern has been consistently observed in many past cycles, showing a typical supercycle pattern in which a rebound that begins in an expensive area (Gangnam) spreads throughout Seoul and then spreads like dominoes to nearby new towns.
In particular, Gangnam is leading the market by surpassing its all-time high, and its momentum is fueling expectations of rising prices in other areas of Seoul and some new cities in the metropolitan area.
--- 「Part 2.
From "Seoul & Nationwide Apartment Market Analysis with Big Data"

During the boom in the housing market, apartment prices showed a steep rise due to a large influx of demand for both residential and investment purposes.
In contrast, villa sales prices showed a significantly lower increase than apartment prices.
In particular, while apartment prices in Seoul continued to soar, villas showed a relatively weak upward trend, widening the price gap with apartments.
The rate of increase in villa prices was mostly lower than the rate of increase in apartment prices.
Most apartments show an increase rate of about half.
From the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2022, when villa sales prices peaked, apartment sales prices rose by approximately 179%, while villa sales prices rose only by approximately 73%.
--- 「Part 3.
From “Precise Analysis of Seoul’s Villa Market”

For a dual-income household with an annual income of 100 million won, a 25-pyeong median-priced apartment in Seoul (excluding the Han River-adjacent areas of Gangbuk, including Nowon-gu, and Mayongseong) is enough to be included on the radar.
In other words, one might think that there would be no demand for apartments the moment one is immersed in the price of superstar complexes in Gangnam, which are worth tens of billions of won, but the reality is that this is not the case at all.
The moment it is judged that apartment prices in Gangnam have risen sharply and market trends have changed, a huge demand equivalent to the average income in Seoul (KRW 100 million per year for two people) may participate in the purchase of apartments in Gangbuk for less than KRW 900 million.
--- 「Part 4.
Among the top 6 real estate investment big issues in 2026

Although the total population of Seoul is decreasing, the number of households is steadily increasing, maintaining the demand for housing.
In particular, the trend toward nuclear families, which are centered around one- to two-person households, is solidly supporting the demand for small and medium-sized apartments.
It would be premature to predict that housing prices will fall due to Seoul's population decline.
Real demand complexes worth less than 900 million won are also gradually recovering amid falling interest rates and recovering liquidity.
And, as it is an area where sufficient loans can be obtained regardless of the June 27 & September 7 measures, there is a high possibility that it will enjoy an upward trend.
In addition to the regional upward domino effect seen in the Seoul apartment market, the same phenomenon can be expected at lower price points.
--- 「Part 5.
From the “Detailed Report on 16 Major Complexes in Seoul”

Looking at the past trends in the Seoul apartment market, prices in Gangnam rose first, followed by those in Gangbuk.
Looking at the long-term cumulative growth rate, the growth rates in Gangnam and Gangbuk are similar.
Therefore, the fact that Gangbuk has been stagnant until now can be interpreted to mean that there is potential for future growth.
In other words, rather than saying that 'the Gangbuk apartment market will no longer rise,' we should look at it from the perspective that there is potential for future increases.
After the announcement of the June 27th measures, both the high-priced and low-priced apartment markets temporarily entered a slump. However, as mentioned earlier, the low-priced apartment market is not affected by the measures, so it is highly likely that those with quick calculations will re-enter the market.
Accordingly, the 'rising domino effect' in the Gangbuk area will still be in effect.
Analysis suggests that the low-end market will see an increase of approximately 3-6%.
--- 「Part 6.
From "2026 Real Estate Price Forecast"

According to the Korea Tourism Data Lab, the number of foreign tourists visiting Korea in 2024 is expected to reach approximately 16.3 million, recovering to 93.5% of pre-COVID-19 levels, and is expected to approach 20 million this year.
The number of foreign tourists, previously concentrated in China, is increasing, especially in countries other than China, such as the United States and Europe, and expectations for emerging markets are growing.
Compared to 2019, the top six countries with the largest increase in visitors to Korea in 2023 were Singapore, the United States, Australia, France, Mongolia, and Germany, showing a notable increase in visitors from distant countries.
This growth is particularly driven by young tourists in their teens and twenties, and women.

--- 「Part 7.
Among the “hot” places to watch out for