"The flow of money repeats itself, and crisis presents opportunity."
Pay attention to the recurring patterns of wealth and money flow!

The essence of Dr. Hong Chun-wook's meticulous analysis of market cycles that have repeated over 100 years!
Practical investment strategies based on the expertise of Korea's top economists.
Investment principles that penetrate market cycles

"The moment you read the flow of money, your investment strategy changes completely." The definitive investment strategy from Dr. Hong Chun-wook, Korea's leading economist! This book analyzes market cycles that have repeated over the past 100 years, explaining how to read economic cycles and asset flows in a way even beginners can easily understand, providing insights that help anyone spot opportune investment opportunities.
Covering a wide range of topics, from macroeconomic indicators that determine asset price fluctuations to investor sentiment and the mechanisms of bubbles and crashes, it clearly presents investors with methods for timing their investments amidst recurring market cycles.
Furthermore, based on real-life cases from major countries such as Korea, the United States, and Japan, it explains how inflation, deflation, interest rate changes, technological innovation, and psychological overheating affect asset markets.
Dr. Hong Chun-wook, an economist with 32 years of experience, emphasizes how to read the "direction of money" and "policy turning points," helping individual investors accurately capture the flow of money without being swayed by the market.
The book is divided into two parts.
Part 1 covers the theoretical aspects of the business cycle, omitting difficult formulas and focusing on the key points.
This book provides step-by-step guidance on how to interpret economic trends necessary for successful investment, including key factors driving asset price cycles in Korea, factors that trigger economic cycles, and asset market bottoms and peaks.
Part 2 introduces the 'Fox Trading' technique, which is learned through practical experience through historical financial events.
From the Great Depression of 1929 to Japan in the 1990s, the dot-com bubble of the 2000s, and the COVID-19 pandemic and AI boom of the 2020s, this book provides detailed insights into how to understand macroeconomic trends and translate them into personal investment strategies.

No matter how hot the Korean asset market may be, if signs of slowing real wage growth and weakening consumption in the US emerge, advance preparations for profit-taking are necessary.
The word "preparation" here doesn't mean selling all your assets right away, but rather making plans and preparing.
For example, if you own two homes, we recommend checking the current market price of your home, not just one, and checking market trends.
And if signs of another slowdown become more evident, it may be a strategy to respond flexibly by adjusting your ask prices.
---From "Beware of Falling Real Wages in the U.S."

Donald Trump campaigned for the 2024 US presidential election with the slogan "drill baby, drill," and since his election, he has been pushing for a policy of strong oil production increases.
Therefore, it is likely that US shale oil production will increase further in the coming years.
Given this, even if a future war were to occur and oil prices would rise, we expect the impact would not be as prolonged as in the past.
In other words, rather than running away at the sound of gunfire, we need to be prepared to buy at a low price at the right time.
---From "Inflation Comes Before Real Wages Fall"

When innovative technologies like the Internet and artificial intelligence emerge, long-term increases in asset prices often occur.
As productivity increases, it not only reduces inflationary pressures but also promotes competitive investment.
Of course, when asset prices reach a bubble level that cannot be explained by corporate performance, we must be prepared to quickly exit.
Companies invest in the belief that future profit growth will continue unabated, but when demand weakens, they are exposed to severe oversupply.
---From "When Technological Innovation Begins, Hold the Bat Long"

Now we have some idea of ​​what causes bubbles in asset markets.
When a new technology emerges that promises to raise real wages and transform the future, market participants' attention is rapidly drawn.
And at this point, the social elite start saying that it's okay to invest here.
I have seen people who first accepted the words of the famous become rich.
The public can no longer tolerate it and starts buying the asset, creating a bubble.
---From "Beware of the Times When Many People Are Seduced by Storytelling"

When leverage is at its peak and short-term interest rates begin to plummet, you should start buying undervalued assets.
The best way to determine whether an asset is undervalued is the price-to-book ratio (PBR) or the price-to-earnings ratio (PER).
If this drops to its lowest level, the stock becomes promising.
Conversely, for real estate, it is better to refer to the house price to income ratio.
(Omitted) If we look at the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the global financial crisis in 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, we can see that the PBR fell to 0.8 times.
Once this level is reached, it would be wise to invest some of the proceeds from investments in U.S. Treasury bonds or gold in large-cap Korean export stocks, which have become more competitive due to the rising exchange rate.
---From "How to Read Turning Points in the Asset Market"

The collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990 was a shocking event for economists around the world.
At the time, Keynesian economic policy prescriptions were losing their persuasiveness, but the Bank of Japan still had a crisis response process in place.
So why didn't this process take effect? ​​Numerous scholars have offered varying opinions.
Among these, it has been argued that the political avoidance of the option of bank bailouts amid frequent regime changes in the early 1990s had a decisive negative impact.
Furthermore, the Bank of Japan has also been criticized for falling into liquidationist thinking and failing to quickly cut interest rates.
There were also claims that the sluggish productivity growth in the Japanese economy was the cause.
---From "The Dot-Com Bubble and the Yellowstone Wildfires"

The bond market bottomed out in late 2008, and stock prices began to rebound rapidly in the spring of 2009.
At that time, I sold the dollars I had and focused on buying major Korean export companies, including Samsung Electronics.
This is because the sharp rise in the exchange rate has increased the price competitiveness of export companies, and the possibility of a chain reaction financial crisis has been reduced thanks to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing.
It was one of the top three most successful investment decisions of my life.
This experience taught me that the worst financial markets can be, the more proactive policymakers need to be.
---From "How America's Real Estate Myth Collapsed"

In the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, global stock markets experienced a strong rally.
This is because interest rates have fallen to zero, governments around the world have embarked on massive fiscal spending, and real wages have skyrocketed.
However, as inflation pressures rise sharply and bond markets become turbulent, you should gradually reduce your exposure to the stock market.
That's because growth stocks, which drive stock price increases, are highly vulnerable to interest rate hikes.
In particular, since the growth theme known as BBIG led the market in 2020, the negative impact of interest rate hikes was likely to have a stronger impact on the Korean stock market.
---From "Turning Points in the Korean Stock Market"

Why did we believe 2023 would be a turning point for the Korean housing market, leading to an improvement in conditions? First and foremost, it was the absolute decline in housing prices and the high expectations that the government would implement strong housing stimulus policies, including interest rate cuts.
In particular, the steady improvement in productivity among Korean workers has brightened the long-term income outlook, which has also been the driving force behind the decision to "buy during a recession."
Of course, there is no guarantee that housing prices will continue to rise in the future.
However, I believe that if you just carefully look at statistics on housing starts, interest rates, and hourly wages, you can avoid major investment failures.
---From "The Illusion and Truth of the Myth of 'One House in Seoul'"

If gold is promising this year.
What assets will be promising in 2026? If we focus on Trump, two scenarios seem possible.
The first scenario is that President Trump pushes ahead with his tariff hikes and weak dollar policies, regardless of the challenges.
At this time, real wages for workers are likely to decline, and the Fed's interest rate cut is likely to be delayed, increasing the risk of an economic recession.
(Omitted) If this scenario becomes reality, the U.S. economic conditions are expected to deteriorate significantly starting in the second half of 2025.
The recent surge in gold prices to historic highs reflects the high likelihood of this scenario occurring.
As the shadow of a recession looms, it's important to pay attention to the valuation levels of Korean and U.S. stocks.

---From "A Flexible Attitude Towards the Asset Market"