Wall Street sage Nassim Taleb shares his investment survival tips for surviving uncertain times.
What we need most in our time is the skill to handle luck!

Taleb is called the geek or wise man of Wall Street.
There is no word that describes him better than 'problematic'.
He became a world star with his 'Black Swan' theory, which describes the phenomenon of completely unexpected events occurring.
Since then, his early work, “Fooled by Randomness,” which laid the foundation for this theory, has been receiving more and more attention.
Some even say, 'This book should definitely be Taleb's masterpiece.'


As time goes by, such as the 2016 Brexit in the UK and the election of President Trump in the US, the fear of 'uncertainty' and 'luck' grows.
The same goes for individuals, companies, and society.
That is because the 21st century is an unpredictable society.
There is only one thing we can do at this time.
It is necessary to practice 'crisis management' so that we can cope even when unavoidable 'misfortune' suddenly strikes.
The author has the same perspective when looking at luck.
Even if you suddenly experience unexpected luck, such as winning the lottery, hitting the jackpot in the stock market, or getting a promotion, you shouldn't attribute it to your own abilities.
The moment you let your guard down, a black swan disguised as misfortune sneaks up on you and attacks your life.


This book is different from ordinary books that only raise issues.
It clearly tells us how to deal with luck and live in these uncertain times.
Surprisingly, the author's answer is 'dignity'.
It means to acknowledge and accept luck as much as possible, but when you can't, maintain a dignified attitude toward life.
This film, from the perspective of a cool-headed statistical expert trader, presents two fictional trainers, Nero and John, who live in the same neighborhood and harshly criticizes many people who are fooled by luck.

$10 million earned by betting on Russian roulette is worth different than $10 million earned by diligently running a dental practice.
Both are the same amount of money in terms of purchasing power, except that the money you win from roulette is more dependent on luck.
It looks the same to the accountant and it looks the same to the neighbor.
Still, I can't shake the feeling that the two currencies are qualitatively different.
--- p.64

People who have the ability but have been unfortunate in life will eventually get back on their feet.
A lucky fool, even if he has had some luck in life, will eventually become more like an unlucky fool in the long run.
Everyone returns to their own long-term properties (ergodicity).
--- p.100

The heroes in [The Millionaire Next Door], which deals with the secrets of the rich's success, are exaggerated.
The sample has double survivorship bias.
In other words, there are two major flaws.
First, the bias is that the rich people in the sample consisted entirely of lucky monkeys.
Second, the book focuses on unusual episodes in history.
This was the period of the world's largest bull market in the 2000s.
--- pp.192-193

Except in specialized occupations like retail, there's no honest answer to the question of who is lucky and who is unlucky.
You could say that B seems to be luckier than A, but the level of certainty is so low that it's meaningless.
So, I maintain a skeptical attitude.
People often misunderstand my opinions.
I never said that all rich people are stupid, nor did I say that all failures are due to bad luck.
Unless you have a lot of additional information, it's best to reserve judgment.
Because it's much safer.
--- p.221

I've been a trader for many years, but I'm still a fool who makes mistakes.
One thing that is different is that I know that I am extremely foolish.
My human nature constantly tries to frustrate me.
So you always have to be on your guard.
Because I was born to be fooled by luck.
--- p.272

Remember that the heroes of epic poetry were judged by their actions, not their results.
No matter how carefully we choose and how confident we are in our ability to control luck, in the end, luck will determine the outcome.
The only solution left to us is dignity.
Dignity means carrying out planned actions without being directly bound by circumstances.
It may not be the best thing to do, but it's definitely the best thing to do.
Maintain dignity under oppression.

--- p.302