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Between statistical belief and illusion
Statistics, Between Belief and Illusion
Description
Book Introduction
We encounter countless numbers every day.
Temperature, health check-up numbers, unemployment rates in the news, even 'likes' on social media.
Numbers are no longer just records; they have become a language that describes the world.
People feel reassured when they see statistics, and they believe that they are seeing the truth when they see numbers.
But do those numbers always tell the truth?

Statistics is one of the most powerful tools for understanding the world, but it is also a source of illusion.
Numbers may seem objective, but they hide human judgment and choice.
Interpretation is already involved in the process of collecting data, classifying it, and applying a model.
Statistics are not a mirror of truth, but a lens that determines the direction in which truth is reflected. In today's society, dominated by AI and big data, we are once again questioning statistics. AI algorithms reproduce human biases, and even amid the precision of big data, uncertainty persists.
Behind the objectivity of numbers, there is still human interpretation, and that interpretation can change the truth.

《Statistics, Between Belief and Illusion》 is not a book that denies statistics, but rather proposes an attitude of 'critical trust' to properly trust statistics.
This book does not cover statistical formulas.
Instead, it explores the relationship between numbers and humans.
Even though statistics explain the world, understanding the world is ultimately a matter of human insight.
Trust the numbers, but be skeptical.
Believe in statistics, but be willing to ask questions.
That is the most important intellectual virtue we must possess as we live in the age of AI and big data.

index
Ⅰ.
Basic understanding of statistics and errors
Why You Should Study Errors - Essential Insights in a Data Society
The Illusion of Statistics: The Duality of Belief and Distrust in Numbers
The Four Fallacies: Bias, Error, Mistake, and Interpretation
Statistical Thinking: Finding Order in Uncertainty
The Probabilistic World: Human Skills in Dealing with Uncertainty
The Power of Numbers: Why Data Appears to Be Truth
The Psychology of Illusion: Traps Researchers and Readers Fall Into
Statistics and Society - The Power That Drives Science, Media, and Policy
The Repercussions of Error: The Social Costs of Misinterpretation
A skeptical attitude: trusting statistics while remaining wary.

Ⅱ.
The Many Faces of Bias and Distortion
Sampling Bias - The Risk of Representative Results
Measurement bias - distortions arising from questions and instruments
Researcher Bias - An Illusion Created by Observer Expectations
Publication Bias: The Structure of Science Where Only Positive Results Survive
Social desirability bias - false responses created by face
Self-selection bias - distortions created by those who participate voluntarily.
Questionnaire Design Bias - The Traps That Question Structure Creates in Response
Respondent fatigue bias - the error caused by repeated surveys.
Data Collection Bias - The Illusion of Omission and Imbalance
Big Data Bias: The Invisible Bias in Massive Data
Algorithmic Bias: Social Inequality Reproduced by AI
Policy Bias - Misjudgments Created by Intentional Indicator Selection

Ⅲ.
Statistical error and human error
Sampling error - large uncertainty created by a small sample
Nonsampling error - errors arising from design and implementation
Type I error - the illusion of attributing a nonexistent effect
Type II Error - Missing the Real Effect
Measurement error - discrepancies revealed in repeated measurements
Model Specification Errors - Studies Falling into the Variable Selection Trap
Violation of assumptions - breakdown of normality, homoscedasticity, and independence
Data processing errors - errors that occur during input and cleaning.
Coding Errors - Common Pitfalls in Python and R
Analysis procedure error - Missing values ​​and multiple comparisons failed to be handled.

Ⅳ.
Interpretation errors and numerical errors
Confusing Correlation and Causation: The Third Variable and the Pitfalls of Causal Inference
Statistical and Practical Significance - Understanding Effect Size Beyond P-Values
Overgeneralization - the error of extending partial results to the whole.
Data snooping - selecting only favorable results from numerous analyses.
p-hacking - The Researcher's Temptation to Force Significance
The illusion of causality: interpreting cause and effect backwards.
Graph Interpretation Errors - The Illusions of Visualization
The Average Trap: The Distortion of Numbers Driven by Extreme Values
Ignoring the median and distribution - an optical illusion that emphasizes only the mean
Ignoring interactions - reducing multidimensional relationships to a single effect.
Overestimation of small effects - the illusion of statistical significance
Underestimating large effects - the error of ignoring real influence

V.
Real-Life Errors and Future Challenges
Media Reporting Errors - Exaggerated Figures and Misinterpretations
Policy Evaluation Errors: The Traps of Education and Health Indicators
Corporate Marketing Mistakes: Averages and Selective Reporting in Advertising
Error Prevention Strategies - Checklist Procedures Researchers Should Follow
Reproducibility and Research Ethics: The Keys to Honest Data Science
Statistical Thinking in the AI ​​Age: Beyond Algorithmic Bias

Ⅵ.
The People Behind the Numbers (Hypothetical Case 1)
The Emotional Gap: Can Happiness Be Defined in Numbers?
The Psychology of Risk: Why Fear Is More Powerful Than Probability
The Blind Spot of Statistics: The Individual Stories Obscured by Averages
Intuition and Data - Choices That Were Right by Feeling
The Weight of Trust: Can We Trust People More Than Data?
Statistics and Morality - Right Numbers, Wrong Judgments
The Atypical Truth: The Exceptions Statistics Can't Read
The Man in the Numbers - The Courage to Embrace Uncertainty
The Language of Graphs - When Visualization Becomes Manipulative
Data Justice - A New Standard for Fairness and Transparency

Ⅶ.
The Philosophy of Uncertainty (Hypothetical Case 2)
The Limits of Probability: Why the World Is Unpredictable
Statistical Imagination - Seeing Beyond Data
The Power of Narrative - Human Language Gives Meaning to Numbers
The Frontiers of Academics - Where Statistics, Philosophy, and Art Meet
The Aesthetics of Doubt - Freedom in Uncertainty
Between Belief and Delusion: The Final Question Left by Statistics
GOODS SPECIFICS
- Date of issue: October 15, 2025
- Page count, weight, size: 263 pages | 148*210*20mm
- ISBN13: 9791112071293

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