*** Best Economics Books of 2023, selected by the Financial Times
*** Recommended reading by the British newspapers The Economist and The Telegraph
*** Recommended reading by University of Michigan historian David Porter

Trade wars, unequal structures, excessive public debt…
Signs of Collapse in the World Order Since the 21st Century
If we go the Roman way, history will inevitably repeat itself!

“Make America Great Again.” This slogan, made famous by former President Trump during the 2016 U.S. presidential election, paradoxically implies that America is no longer great.
Medieval historian Peter Heder and political economist John Lafley, authors of “Why Empires Fall,” go a step further, asserting that the West, including the United States, “cannot become great again in the same way as before.”
The old way of doing things, the post-World War II world order, is already showing signs of collapse today.
Until the end of the 20th century, the West reigned as a de facto economic empire over Third World countries through the free trade and international financial system known as the Bretton Woods system, but its dominance has been rapidly collapsing since the beginning of the 21st century.


The West's share of global gross domestic product (GGP), which was close to 80 percent in 1999, fell to 60 percent in just 10 years following the 2008 global financial crisis, and China is emerging as a new superpower, threatening American hegemony.
Through a sophisticated comparison of the political and economic history of the modern West with the history of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, the authors diagnose why the current world order is bound to collapse and propose a new world order that will resolve the contradictions of the imperial system.
"Why Empires Fall" offers a completely new interpretation of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, drawing on the latest archaeological research, and transcending today's rapidly changing world situation, providing readers with insight into history, geopolitics, and economics.

Readers might be tempted to dismiss the problems they face as a fire across the river, as if the West is collapsing, as if they were not our problem.
Unfortunately, however, globalization has had a direct impact on the West, and Korea has been unable to avoid it. As a country that has experienced rapid growth, Korea has also experienced problems that have emerged at a rapid pace, following in the footsteps of the West.
(…) Simply put, the fire from the West across the river came to us by boat.
--- From the Translator's Preface

The world deposited its surpluses in Western banks, first in pounds and later in dollars, and these currencies replaced gold as the lubricant for international trade.
Western universities became meccas for ambitious intellectuals from around the world, and until the late 20th century, the world enjoyed both Hollywood movies and European football.
Then suddenly history was turned upside down.
--- From "Introduction: Follow the Money"

Gibbon was wrong.
The Roman Empire did not experience a long, slow decline from its golden age in the 2nd century until its inevitable fall in the 5th century.
The empire was at the peak of its prosperity until just before its collapse.
--- From "Chapter 1 Rome in 399, Washington in 1999"

Now two powerful parallels begin to emerge between Roman history and the history of the modern West.
(…) Both empires exercised their dominance and grew wealthy through the surrounding world.
But by doing so, both empires inadvertently altered the strategic and geopolitical context in which they operated, and this lay the root of their downfall.
--- From "Chapter 2 Empire and Abundance"

The modern West, born of great powers equipped with navies and railroad construction capabilities sufficient to build vast empires, created a much more complex geography.
But a closer look reveals that its interlocking economic structure operated in a manner broadly similar to that of its counterpart, ancient Rome.

--- From "Chapter 3: East of the Rhine, North of the Danube"

Although the formal political control of imperialism had disappeared, the imperialist (or, as is often called, neocolonial) economic system continued to function, providing material benefits to the center.
As a result, the per capita income ratio between the 'West and the Rest' increased from about 3:1 in 1950 to double that by the end of the century.
--- From "Chapter 4 The Power of Money"

As the system collapsed, the Roman Empire fell into decline.
Superpower competition and the assertiveness of a developing inner periphery, combined with significant migration flows from the outer periphery and beyond, placed additional stresses on the system, all of which was sometimes intertwined with bitter internal political divisions at each level.
--- From "Chapter 5: The Collapsing World"

What is putting pressure on Western welfare states is not the influx of foreigners, but the post-war prosperity that has extended life expectancy and dramatically increased dependency ratios.
Relying on foreign-trained doctors and nurses has saved many public systems from collapse (Australia and Canada's systems would cease to function without them) and saved Western taxpayers enormous sums of money by shifting much of the cost of producing medical staff to other countries.

--- From "Chapter 6: Invasion of the Barbarians"

While institutional and ideological differences are undeniable, China's sheer size and growing economic and diplomatic influence over developing countries suggest that it will inevitably join the strategy of transitioning to a new global political structure.
While this may be humiliating for the Western powers that until recently dictated what China should do, history suggests the alternative is far worse.

--- From "Chapter 7 Power and the Periphery"

Thus, the West's response to the coronavirus crisis has brought key questions, previously hidden beneath the surface of globalization, to the forefront of debate with renewed urgency.
Who will repay the West's massive debt, and how? And what will Western society look like in the future?
--- From "Chapter 8: The Death of a Nation?"

But whatever happens, the West can never again be great from the perspective of the 19th and 20th centuries.
The fundamental structure of the world economy has changed so profoundly that some leaders must stop pretending that greatness can be restored.
Moreover, if anyone is even remotely honest about the extent of the oppression and exploitation upon which the modern Western empire was built in the first place, they should not mourn its death.

--- From "Conclusion: The Death of the Empire?"