How to confront the swaying specter of dictatorship
The Paradox of the Golden Pistol
Chapter 1: The Dictator's Treadmill
Chapter 2 Enemy Within
Chapter 3: Weakening the Military Group
Chapter 4: Rebels, Guns, and Money
Chapter 5 Foreign Enemies and Domestic Enemies
Chapter 6: If you shoot, you lose
Chapter 7: There is no other choice.
Chapter 8: Words Become Seeds
Chapter 9: How to Overthrow a Dictator
Acknowledgements
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A Decade of Research on the Politburo of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and Field Research in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Through over 100 interviews with human rights activists, dissidents, and rebel leaders,
Revealing the inherent limitations of dictatorship and the new possibilities of democracy

Questions at the scene of the coup
"When does a dictator lose power? What happens after that?"

“On the way back to the office [a brewery in the Democratic Republic of the Congo], a sharp sound cut through the quiet air.
It was the sound of a gunshot.
Even if they weren't originally targeting me, one of those shots could have had serious consequences.
Slightly frightened, I looked back at my colleagues and asked.
“What should I do now?” The answer I got was, “Just stay.”
There was a layer of protection between me, a visiting European, and the danger behind the concrete wall.
Others in this city outside the walls were not as lucky as I was.

… Why do people in some countries accept situations of profound instability as if they were completely familiar? How did President Kabila manage to remain in power for five more years? When do leaders like Kabila lose power? What happens after they do? I decided to study how dictators fall.
“International organizations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have also studied this topic, always addressing the question of how dictators fall.” (Excerpts from pages 25-27)

Marcel Dirjus was working at a brewery in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2013 when he witnessed the coup d'état launched by religious leader Paul Joseph Mukungubila against President Joseph Kabila.
Although the coup ultimately failed, the intense experience at the time led to the writing of “How Dictators Fall.”
The author argues that dictators remain a significant and undeniable threat even today, and warns that without a proper understanding of this, we will be unable to adequately address the various authoritarian threats posed around the world.
This book serves as a practical guide that helps us understand the nature and structural contradictions of modern dictatorships and suggests a strategy for restoring democracy centered on peaceful resistance.

The core problem facing dictators is
Fear and silence

“When crooked people become dictators, dictatorship can further ruin them.” (p. 102)

Marcel Dirges first analyzes the dictator's power mechanism.
Dictators, who, in the author's words, are "trapped on a treadmill from which they can never get off," demonstrate that while they appear invincible, they actually hold surprisingly shaky positions of power.
This is due to the ‘dictator’s dilemma’ (page 89).
The author points out that the dictatorship is opaque not only to the outside world but also to the dictator himself, making it very difficult for the dictator to manage the entire country.
Therefore, dictators have no choice but to constantly create an atmosphere of fear in order to maintain power.


The main ways in which dictators maintain power are 1) strengthening the elite structure based on loyalty, 2) decentralizing and overlapping the work of the military and intelligence agencies to prevent the overthrow of the regime, and 3) suppressing the media and manipulating information to control the public.
This structure is very unstable.
His cronies can always covet power, and the military elite can easily become dissatisfied with their political exclusion.
Corruption and cronyism alienate the public and weaken the very legitimacy of the system.
The most crucial problem is that the fear instigated by the dictator forces critics to remain silent and unable to voice their opinions.
A dictator has no way of knowing what his people, or even his close associates, are really thinking.
"Does this person truly support the government's ideology, or is he just playing the part to buy time until he can stab the dictator in the back? The dictator never knows."

Because in a dictatorship, telling the truth means risking your life.
In the end, the dictator becomes a lonely being surrounded by countless enemies, and he has structural limitations that make him lose his sense of reality and inevitably lead him down the path to ruin.


Why can't dictators see reality?

Kim Jong-un “came to power with an experience that seriously distorted his view of reality from a young age” (p. 103), while Putin justified war crimes by blocking various information and “listening only to the opinions of siloviki, such as soldiers and spies, and taking an increasingly hostile attitude” (p. 102).
Xi Jinping emphasized the inevitable wolf diplomacy of physical confrontation, saying in 2023, “We must fight boldly” (p. 38).


In the case of Saddam Hussein, he cites psychoanalytic studies of dictators and says, “The antisocial personality traits of a malignant narcissist, including delusions of persecution, aggression, and a lack of moral judgment, may actually help him succeed as a dictator” (p. 107).
In the case of Muammar Gaddafi, the reason Libya was unable to properly establish various strategic goals for the country, including the development of nuclear weapons, is directly related to the problem of dictatorship.
“A government system centered on Gaddafi as an individual made it difficult to grasp the overall problem, and there was no agency to monitor and understand what scientists were doing.
“We have not even reached the threshold of nuclear weapons because we have traded internal security for protection against external threats” (p. 210).
This is similar to the case of Saddam Hussein, who was not given proper advice even when he desperately needed it.


What about Viktor Yanukovych, who brutally suppressed unarmed citizens who took to the streets? (p. 226) The author points out that the “seesaw game of repression and radicalization” is a common problem, so dictators try to prevent people from taking to the streets in the first place, but this itself is absurd.
The cases of Viktor Orbán, who declared that he would turn Hungary into an “illiberal democracy”—a de facto form of authoritarianism—and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (p. 38), who created a structure that makes it increasingly difficult for the opposition to win elections, point out that under a dictatorship, there will always be an abundance of people who are fundamentally unhappy in terms of the citizens’ ability to exercise influence.


The fate of a dictator, whether metaphorically or in reality, is always near death.
This can be seen in Nicolae Ceausescu (page 63), who was so confident until his death on the last day of his power that he urged his aide piloting a helicopter to “follow the cause”; Nicolae Maduro (page 282), who narrowly escaped death by a drone attack while giving a speech on economic recovery; Idi Amin, who fled to Saudi Arabia during the war with Tanzania; Ben Ali, who also fled to the same place; and Mobutu Sese Seko, who settled in Morocco (page 59).
They died or nearly died countless times before escaping.
Research shows that one in five dictators who lost power after World War II fled abroad.
What about Nazarbayev, who has successfully amassed enormous personal power over the years? Even after resigning as president, he continues to enjoy privileges like immunity from prosecution. But he soon faces other inevitable challenges.
“The moment you give up power, it becomes difficult to defend yourself.” (p. 50)

This book also analyzes dictators such as Charles Taylor, Isen Abr, Islam Karimov, Yahya Jammeh, Saparmurat Niyazov, Bokassa, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot, and argues that one cannot become a dictator without committing crimes and making enemies.
Dictators continue to do the impossible to remain in power as long as possible, and then move towards ruin.


Vivid testimonies from the scene of the collapse of the dictatorship,
Interviews with human rights activists, dissidents, and rebel leaders

The author suggests that the main causes of the collapse of the dictatorship are 1) internal coup, 2) popular resistance, and 3) foreign intervention.
The moment the military or its inner circle turns its back, the regime collapses in an instant, and a widespread civil disobedience movement takes time, but increases the chances of a successful regime change.
The author particularly emphasizes that 'nonviolent civil resistance' is the most effective method in the long term.
Research supports this finding, showing that when peaceful resistance involving approximately 3.5 percent of the population occurs, the likelihood of regime collapse increases dramatically. [Chenoweth's '3.5 Percent Rule' (p. 222)] On the other hand, he points out that foreign military intervention can lead to unpredictable chaos, requiring a cautious approach.

An interesting part of this book is the interviews with people the author met in person.
The journalist who played a crucial role in bringing down the oppressive regime of East Germany (Siegbert Schepke, codenamed “Satan” by the Stasi, p. 241), the rebel leader who led a brutal massacre in Burundi (Agaton Rwasa of the National Liberation Army, p. 306), and the Gambian-American activist who was imprisoned for plotting to liberate his country (human rights activist Vanka Mane, p. 118) vividly show the inherent limitations of dictatorship.

Each case raises the following questions:
"When a dictator orders the firing of unarmed protesters, can that order actually be carried out? The dictator may want to order brutal repression, but what if the gunmen sympathize with those facing the gun?" "Why is it so difficult to end a civil war?" "Is the peaceful overthrow of a dictatorship possible? What awaits them?"

This goes beyond an analysis of dictatorship to address various possibilities for how a nation can survive and be rebuilt.
Through analysis of various scenarios and cases of the downfall of those who dreamed of eternal power and the collapse of dictatorships, we closely trace the political and social mechanisms hidden within them.
This book offers penetrating insights into the reality of democracy in crisis.


The real beginning comes after the dictator steps down.
The challenges of civil society, press freedom, and political system reform

“A year after Armenia’s Velvet Revolution, a reporter asked a fruit vendor how things had changed. The vendor replied that only a fool would expect a revolution to change everything.
“Revolution is like getting an empty birdhouse,” said the white-haired woman, sitting in front of a cardboard box filled with onions, apples and tomatoes.
“It still needs to be fixed and furnished,” he added.
That was right.
“A peaceful uprising is an opportunity to create something better, but it doesn’t solve all our problems at once.” (p. 300)

In this book, the author argues that what happens after a dictator's fall is more important than the dictator's fall.
In many cases, authoritarianism returns in different guises, and the restoration of democracy requires sustained effort and institutional building, not a one-time event.
True regime change is impossible without organizing civil society, restoring freedom of the press, and reforming the political system.
The author emphasizes that the fall of a dictator does not guarantee an immediate transition to democracy.
It deeply analyzes how a nation can overcome and survive the chaotic transition period following a dictatorship and move toward true democracy, and warns that the period immediately following a dictator's departure is the most dangerous.


This book presents three key conditions for a post-dictatorship nation to survive and restore democracy.
1) Reconstruction of civil society and expansion of participation.
Democracy cannot be sustained by elections alone; citizens must be empowered to participate in politics and monitor their government in their daily lives.
In dictatorships, citizens are often alienated from politics or internalize distrust and a sense of powerlessness toward the system.
Therefore, various intermediate organizations, such as civic groups, labor unions, and local communities, must be revitalized, and this must shift from simple anti-government activities to responsible participation in the public interest.

2) Restoration of freedom of the press and transparency of information.
Dictatorships tightly control the media, suppress critical viewpoints, and control the public through lies and propaganda.
Democracy, on the other hand, operates on the basis of a diverse flow of information and open discussion.
The author emphasizes that monitoring power is possible when truthful information is freely exchanged, and citizens can face reality and make independent choices.
Essential tasks for this include protecting independent media, disclosing public information, and abolishing Internet censorship (supporting the development of secure messenger apps).


3) Structural reform of the political system.
Even if a seemingly democratic system exists, it means correcting the authoritarian operating methods inherent within it.
A fair and transparent election system, an independent judiciary, and a legislative-executive relationship that allows for checks and balances of power must be institutionally guaranteed.
Above all, democracy can only be sustainable if it prevents the concentration of power and democratically designs the succession structure.


In addition to these three conditions, the author also mentions the role of the international community.
Rather than forcing the restoration of democracy from outside, it is more effective to support citizens within their own country to change the system themselves.
Such non-interventionist approaches include diplomatic pressure, sanctions, technical assistance, and information dissemination.

The vulnerability of democracy revealed by the December 3 martial law
How to Fight the Growing Specter of Dictatorship
“What matters in democracy is no longer conservative vs.
It's not progress,
Democracy vs.
“It’s anti-democratic!”

As the author says, dictatorship has a longer history than democracy.
“In the long history of politics, what has been more common has been dictatorship, not democracy.
Historically speaking, the era of democracy is nothing short of an exception.” Therefore, it may be natural that the seeds of dictatorship can sprout through the cracks of democracy at the moment of carelessness.
The aforementioned Democracy Report 2025 by the Institute for Democracy and Diversity warned that structural factors such as media control, political polarization, and weakening institutions are eroding democracy worldwide.


Marcel Dirges also warns that many post-dictatorship countries tend to revert to authoritarianism when they amend their constitutions or reform their electoral systems.
Today, dictatorship no longer manifests itself only as military coups or blatant usurpations of power.
Modern dictators, after gaining power legally through elections, gradually strengthen their authoritarian regimes by suppressing the press, controlling the judiciary, and revising the constitution.
This may seem like democracy on the surface, but in reality, authoritarianism is spreading, undermining the functions of freedom and checks and balances.


Our country also experienced this fact painfully through the December 3 martial law.
In reality, indifference and ignorance toward dictatorship resulted in support for the December 3 martial law, and it is also true that “the confrontational structure between conservatives and progressives in democratic politics is no longer valid, and the confrontation between democratic and anti-democratic forces seems to have become more important” (p. 11, Kim Man-kwon’s commentary).


In this age of crisis, where democracy and authoritarianism are once again clashing, this book explores the possibilities and limitations of a new democracy through an analysis of how power operates between dictatorship and democracy, coercion and consent, and domination and resistance.
It also presents practical conditions for a nation to survive as a democracy after the fall of dictatorship and suggests a strategic direction for overcoming the crisis of democracy and building a sustainable system.


Blending practical insights into regime change with the concrete stories of those who have stood up to authoritarianism—including human rights activists, dissidents, rebel leaders, and exiled revolutionaries—this book resonates deeply with those grappling with the future of democracy, a democracy increasingly under threat today.
At the same time, it is a political guide that offers deep reflection on how we can protect and revive democracy today.


■ Release (some excerpts)

Kim Man-kwon (political scientist)
As Dirjus rightly points out, what has been more common in the long history of politics has been dictatorship rather than democracy.
Historically speaking, the era of democracy is nothing short of an exception.
“Cruel and oppressive governments have been the norm, not the exception.” This is evident even in our own history.
The two leaders supported by conservative forces, Syngman Rhee and Park Chung-hee, were both dictators.

In this respect, for anyone interested in politics, understanding how dictatorships are established, maintained, and fall is essential.
This is especially true in a country like ours, where dictatorship has been rampant for over 40 years since the founding of the republic, and especially if some political forces have their identity rooted in the memory of that dictatorship.
But we paid little attention to the dictatorship as a form of rule, as if this republic had been a democracy from the beginning.
In this context, what we must pay attention to is how the idea that 'it's okay for a dictatorship to be in power' persists even today.
The reason we might consider here is that we “rather do not properly understand what ‘dictatorship’ is, how it works, and what impact it has.”